Re: Apples and Tomatoes? No, bigger and smaller apples
in response to
by
posted on
Aug 31, 2009 06:19PM
I read the 10K and found it to be as expected. I look forward to reading the next 10K just as much.
As to your Apple vs Different Apple, a six year span vs one year?:
Inability of Management to Forecast its Business We do not believe that senior management is able to forecast its business with any semblance of accuracy and this has cost shareholders as management and the board have made spending decisions based on their incorrect forecasts. Mr. Snyder and Mr. Peterson have repeatedly stated that the Company is spending in order to grow and that they believe ASUR can be a $30-40 million revenue company in just a few years. Management has repeatedly promised impressive results and failed to deliver. At this point Red Oak believes it unwise to trust shareholder equity to Management and the incumbent Board’s direction. For perspective, we include examples across many years’ forecasts during ASUR’s earning calls as opposed to just a few: * In ASUR’s Q4, 2003 earnings conference call, Chief Financial Officer Jay Peterson indicated that ASUR believed it could achieve $40-50 million in annual software revenues in three to four years “based on early optimism from large enterprise customers and assuming just a little help from the economy.” Although the economy offered significant help from late 2003 through the next three to four years, ASUR’s software revenues are and were well under even $20 million (let alone $40-50 million), inclusive of the revenue acquired in 2007 by buying iEmployee, which, according to ASUR’s amended 10-K for the fiscal year ended July 31, 2008, generated more than $5.3 million in revenues from August 1, 2006 through July 31, 2007. * In ASUR’s Q1, 2004 conference call, CEO Richard Snyder reaffirmed “our previous guidance of 6 to $7 million in software revenue for this current fiscal year.” In contrast, ASUR generated just $3 million in software revenue in fiscal 2004 despite help from a very strong economy. Additionally, in the same call Mr. Snyder reaffirmed “between $40 to $50 million in annual software revenues in the next three to four years.” He also added that “we believe that we can manage expenses to be flat, while also expending approximately $300,000 on Sarbanes Oxley related requirements over the next several quarters.” Expenses increased from $16 million to $23 million from 2003 to 2004. * In ASUR’s Q1, 2006 call, Jay Peterson claimed that “we have line of site to EBITDA profitability this fiscal year.” 2006 reported EBITDA was negative $3.9 million, again despite a strong year in the economy. In the same call, Richard Snyder claimed “we’ll continue to look at a dividend or perhaps a stock buyback, and after that, we’ll continue to look at the ability to invest some of that for the growth of our software business.” No share repurchases or cash dividend were ever effected after this date yet the Company continued a substantial cash spend, followed by an acquisition which cost ASUR more than 2x its current market capitalization. * In ASUR’s Q2, 2006 call, Mr. Snyder stated “with regard to expenses as we mentioned, this is the lowest, we’ve gotten the expenses down to the lowest point, really, in the Company’s history, minus depreciation, and we believe that there is still room to continue to scrutinize those expenses and get them down.” For reference, expenses never went lower than that quarter. * In ASUR’s Q4, 2007 call, Mr. Peterson claimed “our overall spending excluding iEmployee will significantly decrease due to the conclusion of the 746 trial” and that “we believe we will generate $12 million in revenue this year and will generate cash in the second half of this fiscal year.” Operating expenses declined for only one quarter before increasing materially every quarter thereafter. The Company generated just $10 million in revenue (nearly 20% below its forecast), and the Company burned $2.7 million in operating cash flow in the second half of the fiscal year as opposed to generating cash. -
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* In ASUR’s Q1, 2008 call, Mr. Peterson confirmed “we believe we will generate $12
million in revenue this year.” ASUR generated just $10mm in revenues in 2008. He also
claimed “we have line of site to EBITDA profitability this fiscal year.” ASUR reported a
$5 million EBITDA loss for fiscal 2008.
* In the same Q1, 2008 call, Mr. Snyder stated “I think your $20 million figure for 2009 is
certainly one we have on the books.” Based on the latest 10-Q, 2009 revenues are
running at approximately 50% of this estimate.
* In
ASUR’s Q1, 2008 call, Mr. Peterson confirmed “we believe we will generate $12 million in revenue this year.” ASUR generated just $10mm in revenues in 2008. He also claimed “we have line of site to EBITDA profitability this fiscal year.” ASUR reported a $5 million EBITDA loss for fiscal 2008. * In the same Q1, 2008 call, Mr. Snyder stated “I think your $20 million figure for 2009 is certainly one we have on the books.” Based on the latest 10-Q, 2009 revenues are running at approximately 50% of this estimate. * In ASUR’s Q3, 2008 call, Mr. Peterson claimed “we plan on generating cash, that is EBITDA profitability in fiscal year 2009.” The operating loss through the first three quarters of FY 2009 is nearly $5 million. * In ASUR’s Q1, 2009 call, Mr. Peterson indicated “we were “anticipating or planning to be EBITDA profitable in our July quarter of this year.” For reference, ASUR reported a $1.4 million operating loss in its April quarter and claimed they would be EBITDA breakeven by the end of the year, not profitable. During an April 27 meeting, when Red Oak asked them to explain their $5.5 million run-rate loss if - as they claimed -both software businesses were breakeven to profitable on their own and there were $1 million in excess costs, ASUR’s CFO Jay Peterson could not explain a $3-4 million/year discrepancy, nor could CEO Richard Snyder nor either of ASUR’s directors present at the meeting. Specifically, they are currently losing $5.5mm/year on a run-rate basis according to the last financial information released. * In ASUR’s Q2, 2009 call, ASUR’s CFO Jay Peterson stated that $3 million per quarter in revenues would equate to EBITDA breakeven. However, in ASUR’s Q3, 2009 earnings, ASUR reported $2.4 million in revenue and a $1.2 million EBITDA loss, or $4.8 million annualized. With ASUR earning under 80% in gross margin, an additional $600,000 in revenues (to reach $3 million per quarter) would have added roughly $480,000 in gross margin per quarter. Even assuming no added sales commission expenses and that ASUR could eliminate $1 million in public company costs (as management claimed it would during their failed go-private effort), ASUR would report an excess of $3.3 million in annual EBITDA loss. ASUR’s forecasts have continually been wrong, and cash continues to decline at a rapid rate reflecting the true losses management is generating, including a $1 million cash burn in the most recent April 2009 quarter. Yet the incumbent board has announced no action to reverse these trends.
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Be well