paylslyone / Re: FYI The is the Q earnings are on the 8TH...
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Mar 29, 2010 11:06PM
Keep in mind that PTSC has been burning roughly $2.5M per quarter in operating expenses. With the restructuring of PDSG and the firing of Goerner, we should expect this number to be less (for example they said the changes should make PDSG's expenses around 40% less). So say they get the burn down to around $1.75M (30%) over the enterprise.
With MMP, they had 4 announced licenses for Q3. Company size and revenue wise, Caterpillar was clearly the largest though, the least "electronics" centered of the group. Based on historical averages, it suggests the quarter could be worth up to $19.72M in MMP revenue to PDS. My personal view is that since Caterpillar is a huge yellow iron company, the majority of their revenue/cost model has to do with the steel and fabrication of their equipment, and not so much from the microprocessors used, so for my analysis, I'm going to discount them by 75% which would reduce the MMP earnings for the quarter to around $5M. Give Alliancense 20% of that and we have $4M to split with TPL, for a net MMP revenue of $2M. Factor in some cash from Holocom, and I'll ballpark revenues at aroudn $2.3M for the quarter. Against $1.75M in expenses, and I'll posit a net gain for the quarter of $0.55M.
With all the maneuvering, and any additional impairments, and restructuring costs, I imagine this analysis is quite over simplistic, but I wouldn't be surprised to see a small gain as you hope for. If Caterpillar is a bigger number than I'm giving credit for, then I think the gain could be a decent one. We'll have to wait and see, but as you indicate, unless they go the route of a late filing because of all the changes, we should see reports by the 8th or the 9th, which is the actual deadline for accelerated filers for a 10q for quarter ending 2/28.
That would be around 71 days from the date of the SHM, so probably too early to hear on the 90-120 day time frame for a CEO, and possible tie in with a PDSG partnership/selloff, but maybe the BOD has learned a lesson and for once will underpromise and overdeliver.
Date | Licensee | Anl Revs of Licensee (Millions) - | License Fee Paid (Millions) |
69 | Q310 | 2/3/2010 | Blue Coat Systems | $444.70 | $0.17 | ESTIMATE |
70 | 2/3/2010 | Caterpillar | $51,324.00 | $19.46 | ESTIMATE | |
71 | 2/9/2010 | Optoma | $35.00 | $0.01 | ESTIMATE | |
72 | 2/19/2010 | Leica Camera | $201.05 | $0.08 | ESTIMATE | |
Q3 TOTALS | $52,005 | $19.72 | $2,637 |