Cautious / Re: What might SP be if earnings become 1 cent per share?
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 13, 2011 06:04PM
Just to compare:
Last Fiscal Year, PDS made $11.09M in gross MMP revenues. If that had all gone to PTSC, it would equate to roughly 2.7 cents per PTSC share based on 407M shares outstanding.
However, of that $11.09M, PTSC received only $808K according to the 10-K (thought the math would suggest it should have only been $600K). In other words, barely over 7% made it to PTSC, meaning that TPL received the other 93% to pay itself and any "3rd party expenses" it incurred. That $808K is before tax earnings from the MMP for PTSC. That equates to 0.2 cents per PTSC shares outstanding. Apply a simple 35% tax burden, and it drops to 0.13 cents per share (that's 13/100ths of a cent - NOT 13 cents)
Essentially, TWO things need to happen and quickly. For starters, this scenario of TPL getting 93 cents of every MMP licensing dollar needs to STOP IMMEDIATELY, (even though it's understood that a good portion of that goes to pay the outside lawyers battling the T3 and others). The problem is, at least from our visibility standpoint, that there is no clarity as to how much of that 93 cents weint into TPL's and their related parties' pockets, versus the MMP lawyer team. The fact that PTSC took them to court and alleged FRAUD supports that a great deal of it went to TPL. Hopefully, the settlement has cured that issue going forward, though until PTSC reveals the details, I'm a doubting Thomas who wants to see the actual nail holes and the pierced abdomen, ie. the revised agreements that show that PTSC has shored up the abuses of TPL. Short of that, I'll attribute to our BOD's ineptitude and continued intentional obfuscation of their negligence.
Secondly, licensing has to increase dramatically. Even in the dream scenario of the $11.09M being broken down as 15% off the top going to TPL for licensing work, and the remaining being split, that would have left $9.42M for TPL & PTSC to split, giving PTSC $4.71 gross earnings from MMP. Take 35% for taxes, and that leaves $3.06M in earnings, which is 0.75 cents per share. With all the litigation ahead, we're a far cry from the "dream scenario", so assuming we're going to experience another year of $8-$12M in "MMP Expenses" for PDS, in order to net out the minmal 1 cent per share, we need $6.3M in before tax earnings from PDS, meaning that with TPL's equal portion, PDS has to bring in $6.3M + $6.3M + ($8M to $12M) in MMP licensing revenue, or $20.6 to $24.6m in MMP revenues in a year. Based on past MMP history, you'd think that's a pretty doable deal. However, when you look at the last 2 years, you realize we're trending the wrong direction.
It is interesting to note that as recently as the fiscal year which ended May 31, 2009, PDS made $29.39M in MMP licensing, and PTSC received $9.7M of that before taxes. Unfortunately, despite over 2 cents per share in gross earnings, it only supported a 15 cent PPS, which is well under the 13.5 P/E when you factor taxes, etc.
Nonetheless, certainly 1 cent per share earnings SHOULD be doable, and if Leckrone's proclamations of MMP remaining value is even 20% of the $1B he claims, the next couple of years could prove to be $75M MMP License Revenue years, with PTSC possibly NETTING $20M per year or more, or close to the 5 cents per share you mention. If the 1 cent or even the 5 cents are in the realm of "real" numbers, then this is where our BOD/Management team can have a PROFOUND influence in how the market perceives PTSC. Creating VISIBILITY and providing MEASURABLE METRICS that the market can then expect and judge PTSC's success/failure, will create interest and confidence in PTSC and warrant NEW INVESTORS. Sprinkle in some strong insider purchasing and who knows what kind of P/E's are achievable? Is our "MOTLEY" (very kindly put) crew up to the task?