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Message: $500M left in MMP? What's it mean to PTSC shareholders?

Sir Steeler:

Allright, I'll give it a shot...Initial reactions in RED.....Good Job !...Virt

  • with that set of circumstances, during THIS fiscal year, we resolve litigation to a point either through actual court action, or a settlement, that licensing begins in earnest and that over the next 5 years, the MMP is licensed for a total of $500M. ....Too conservative. Add ~$250M guessestimate...I'm an Optimist..lol.
  • Notes:

    • on average, it takes 20 cents to make $1.00 in MMP revs. ..Too high...~$.15 guessestimate.
    • means $500M collected results in $400M to partners which results in $200M to PTSC before taxes

    Analysis Parameters;

    • even annual collection of $200M = $40M per year
    • 35% tax rate (ignores any loss carryovers)....Too low..More likely 40%, Fed & State
    • corporate (SEC Compliance & M.A./Comm Ag enforcement) management expenses of $1.5M per year TOTAL (what's really required?!) ..Agreed
    • keep $15M in treasury war chest at all times and distribute all money above $15M as dividends ..Agreed....
    • liquidate the remaining assets through dividends at the end of 5 years....Agreed. Assuming NO more diversification schemes.

    As you can see from the very basic spreadsheet below, this level of licensing under these simplified parameters, could net around a 4 to 10 cent annual dividend, or 32 cents per share over the next 6 years.

    What market cap TODAY would be warranted for such a return on investment over 6 years. In other words, what would you have to invest today to have it worth 32 cents 6 years from now. Obviously, it depends on the interest rate of your investment. What if the assumed interest rate was 7%? The answer is 22.6 cents......7% Really?...Tad high in today's economy, you think?

    Now, forget holding the stock for the next 6 years, and only look as if you're looking at a window of time of 1 year. Factor in the possibility that PTSC might earn 60M in that year, and $20M the next, and instead provide you with a dividend of 8 cents in your particular investment time frame. In that case, what is the "market price" for THOSE shares. Seems like they'd be quite a bit higher?....Agreed..But extremely difficult to forecast future revenue and unlikely PTSC/TPL would provide visibility.

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