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Message: Settlements Math?!

With the looming deadlines and typical corporations' typical risk averse natures, I think it's more than likely that we'll see more settlements before litigation. Perhaps even before the 9/6 ITC deadline.

The HTC $10M number didn't surprise me and I wouldn't be surprised if the average over the 13 ITC infringers was realistically in a $5M to $10M neighborhood. Obviously, that's a guess, but when you take into account the downplaying of license values that's been communicated by PTSC over the years, a $50M license would be more of a surprise to me than a $5M, especially if come by through a settlement.

I'm not sure that's such a bad thing as I think the infringement pool is rather large still, and if we took an average of $7.5M over the 13 accused, that would mean a gross of $97.5M. If that were to all happen in this current quarter, that would be a remarkable quarter. I assume that would also create a momentum of some others to license as well. But just looking at those fees, and assuming that Agility gets 33%, that would leave $65M. Give Alliacense their 15% and TPL their 15% off the top, and that leaves $46M or so left for the PDS partners to split, which gives PTSC $23M. I can't remember the last time we had a $23M quarter, but suffice it to say, I think it would be remarkable, and if it came in a credible context of additional sustainable licensing levels near the $65M range (no Agility to worry about anymore), that SHOULD be seen as a pretty positive development, I would hope.

How many infringers are there left that merit a $7.5M license fee? That sure seems like the kind of info a public company would proactively communicate to its current and hopefully future shareholders.

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