nan0bits / Re: Upcoming 10q Results
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 10, 2013 02:47PM
Well it seems if your note on 110 is correct, that should be accurate as Mac Leckrone would be committing perjury if not the case. HTC would make the total 111. And of those 111, forgetting Hyundai for now, we KNOW the names of 97 of them, meaning 14 are NOT known.
Based on the PR's and court filings, I'm comfortable saying that 7 of those unknown licenses were signed PRIOR to January of this year.
From there, it's assumed, but hard to confirm for sure, that 2 were signed PRIOR to the last quarter, and the other 5 were signed either during the last quarter or the current quarter.
I realize you're going off of memory and notes you took rather than actual court transcripts, but when you look at the totality of the PR's and court filings from current and prior cases, I think we can safely say that the 100th license was signed sometime during the first 6 months of this year. I think it was either Brocade, or one of the unannounced licenses. Since I would think that would be a milestone TPL & PTSC would like to TRUMPET, I'll deduce that since it wasn't announced with the Brocade license that they were the magic 100th, that the 100th was one of what I estimate as at least 2 unannounced licenses from the March to May quarter of this year.
Also, with a decent level of certainty, the license revenue that will be reported for last quarter in the upcoming 10q will have come from no fewer than 2, but no more than 8 licenses (more likely no more than 6).
That leaves the possibility for a very nice upside surprise in revenue, but since it all came before the ITC ID or the NDoC trial, I think caution and conservative expectations are in order. The last 8 quarters average about $1.89M per quarter and around $840K per license, so considering I'll stick with my $2.5M estimate assuming we got at least the 2 known and 1 unknown license over in that quarter, and they pulled in at least the average amount.
We'll know in 5 days!