What would $62M in settlements mean to PTSC?
posted on
Jul 09, 2015 04:14PM
Let's suppose that the remaining litigants all settle as the same low rates we got from HTC? Essentially that's $1 in license for every $5,000 they make in revenue per year. Based on $312B in revenue that would result in $62.4M in license fee.
If we assume that it costs us 1/3 in legal fees to achieve that, that would leave $41.6M for PTSC & TPL to split with $20.8M going to PTSC.
Considering we won the HTC trial, and assuming we get to trial on these others, that to me would seem to be the baseline starting point for settlment negotiations/awards from the court.
Unless we've secretly signed these companies, when I look at the top 100 electronics companies from 2006, these 10 top 25 companies that are NOT part of the current litigation still remain on the possible infringers to be signed list. Their 2006 annual ELECTRONICS revenues are in parenthesis next to their name.
IBM (92B), Siemens (60B), Hitachi (58B), Dell (57B), Microsoft (46B), Hon Hai Precision (40B), Cisco (32B), Ingram Micro (31B), Ericcson (26B), ABB (23B), & Tech Data (21B).
Assuming they all infringe at similar ratios of $1 per $5000, that would be another $486B in annual revenue yet to be licensed! That's $97.2M in additional license fees with and estimated 1/3 going to PTSC, meaning another $32.4M in license fees.
Assuming that we prevail with Kessler, and we prevail again at the court house (I would think that's pretty likely provided Kessler doesn't derail us), it would seem these next $53M (20.8 + 32.4) in license fees to PTSC could come within the next 12 months.
If that's the case, I think there's significant upside to be considered. While it's not huge, $53M across 401M shares, is $0.13 per share in and of itself.
I would hope that the dissappointing HTC award/license represents a minimum price that we can extract from infringers. If that's an accurate statement, and there are indeed 300 more infringing targets out there (400 minus the 100 already signed), it would seem the remaining 270 or so that aren't part of those considered in this post would represent another $150-$200M in licensing to PDS with 1/3 going to PTSC's top line, or $50-$67M.
While I realize the Kessler ruling is the next hurdle and is critically important to us, the question in my mind then is "Is the Kessler ruling THE HURDLE that we need to clear" in order to burst the dam for these next $100M to PTSC's gross revenues? If so, how quickly can that be realized if we do get through the Kessler ruling successfully? If we do, what does it mean to PTSC's share price?
$120M across 401M shares is 30 cents a share. If PTSC issues dividends pre-tax, then that seems realizable to me in the next 12 months. Any chance? Thoughts?