sports handicapers  out there. I actually met this guy once as he lives close to me. Interesting guy, weird, but interesting.

From the Orange County Register.....

For some reason, nobody is asking me for my Super Bowl pick this year.

Perhaps it's because I was held hostage by the PGA Tour the previous two weeks, stalking Tiger Woods and his inferior tour colleagues at the Bob Hope Chrysler Classic in the desert and at the Buick Invitational at Torrey Pines.

Or maybe it was because the So-Called Expert lost to the guest prognosticators for the second consecutive year. Who wants to know which team I like unless you want to use that information to take out a second mortgage on your house and go the other way? I certainly would understand that line of thinking.

For the record, as soon as the Super Bowl point spread was published — it opened as high as 14 points in a couple of Las Vegas sports books, 131/2 points at most others and ultimately was bet down to 12 — I knew I liked the New York Giants and the points in Super Bowl XLII.

After all, the undefeated New England Patriots had struggled to hold off the Giants, 38-35, during the final week of the regular season. And they have won 10 consecutive road games to get the NFL championship game.

In addition, a professional gambler once told me he always takes the double-digit underdog in the NFL, no matter which teams are playing in a given week. He said that over the course of the season, you'll come out ahead if you do this.

As always, however, I will defer to Larry Trusley for a more scientific analysis of the Super Bowl.

Trusley, better known as "The Wiz of Odds" (www.wizofodds.com) is a professional sports handicapper from Newport Beach and author of a regular newsletter called "A Bettor Approach." He also is the author of a 2003 book on sports gambling called "Wake Up John McCain! 40 Million Americans Enjoy Wagering on Sports."

"If he is elected president, I hope the Secret Service doesn't come looking for me," Trusley said this week, laughing.

Trusley's job is to crunch the numbers and analyze the trends and is paid by his clients to predict which team will win the big game and by how many points.

What they do with that information is their business, he says, presumably winking. Maybe his clients merely want to impress their friends on Super Sunday. Or maybe they're trying to win a house-cleaning wager, or bedroom bet, against their spouse.

Trusley is good at what he does. I know from experience. A decade ago, Larry wiped out the So-Called Expert's three-game lead in the final week of the regular season to give the guest prognosticators their first collective victory in "Pickin' & Grinnin.' " Those were the good old days, back when I had a clue.

I have a hunch people read Trusley's information very carefully, considering his published Super Bowl picks are 11-6-2 against the spread in the past 19 years, since he launched his handicapping service in 1988. In contrast, he says the "Gold Sheet" — arguably the nation's most popular betting information tip sheet — is 3-14-2 over the same span.

For the record, I have monitored Trusley's Super Bowl picks for the past 10 years, during which time he is 6-3-1 against the betting line. Interestingly, two of his losses were in Super Bowls involving the Patriots, so be wary this year.

He thought the Rams would cover the 14-point spread in 2002, when the Patriots registered a 20-17 upset in New Orleans; and he thought the Patriots would cover the 7-point spread in 2004, when they pulled out a 32-29 victory against the Panthers in Houston. He also took Chicago and the points last year, dooming my beloved Bears to a 29-17 loss to the Colts.

This year, he likes the Patriots to win and cover the spread, for a lot of reasons. A few numbers and stats that might interest you:

•The Patriots (record 589 points scored, 274 points allowed) have an impressive 2.15 regular-season point differential, compared to the Giants' 1.06 differential (373 points scored, 351 allowed).

"You have to go all the way back to the 1986 Super Bowl to find a point differential difference that comes close to the 1.09 advantage the Pats have this year," Trusley said. That year, the 15-1 Bears had a 2.30 differential, compared to the Patriots' 1.25, and the Bears easily covered the 10-point spread with a 46-10 Super Bowl romp in New Orleans.

Trusley also points out that, since 1985, the Super Bowl team with the higher regular-season point differential is 18-5 straight up and 14-7-2 against the spread.

•The Patriots have a plus-16 turnover ratio (more takeaways than turnovers); the Giants a minus-9 ratio. And the team with fewer turnovers on Super Sunday has won 30 of 33 times (91 percent).

•Super Bowl favorites are 29-11 straight up (with one pick 'em), 22-16-2 against the spread.

•Team with the longest winning streak going into the game has won 24 of 37 (65 percent). I think this favors the 18-0 Patriots.

•The Gold Sheet's prediction: Giants 31, Patriots 30. (Trusley says the Gold Sheet is 1-9 vs. the spread in the NFL playoffs this year.)

Trusley also has a few numbers that favor the Giants — for example, the Patriots are only 10-8 against the spread, 0-5 in the past five games — but he says the preponderance of the date supports the Patriots winning and covering."The Wiz does not endorse John McCain," Trusley said, laughing, "but he does like the Patriots