We may be seeing some simple arbitrage, with some NOT shares being sold to cover the hedged bet of FWR share purchase. The market action in that context is telling us nothing about relative valuation, simply that NOT is easier to sell than FWR is to buy at the current price. Anyone who holds NOT but is expecting a counter for FWR may try to hedge this way without putting additional money on the table. So, if you liked NOT at $2.00, you are getting a short term opportunity to buy for slightly less. Trying to read anything into this about relative valuation is misguided. FWR alone is also carrying a speculative counterbid premium , and supported by people who simply have no interest in NOT, other than the bid impact on FWR. If the bid were to simply fail, without a counter, I expect both to drop short term, providing a second buying opportunity. If the bid succeeds, the combined NOT could actually trade a bit lower for a while as some FWR devotees bail out. That may also explain current NOT weakness in an environment where we might be expecting better. All seems logical right now.