Excellent post in my view with a qualifier. CLF is not actually big enough to comfortably wait for a NOT/FWR merger then buy the combo. The combined cap is 5+ times the FWR cap, and CLF already owns a chunk of fd FWR equity. If they ( or say an Arcelor) really want the Cr, they will move now , which could be good for NOT holders if NOT has to put itself into play in a three-way deal to stave off CLF. Potentially, both scenarios could play sequentially. Early days but that is why these deals often result in the aggressor coming into play.