I recall back when Shelly was dumping insane numbers of shares beginning Q3 2011 I got the nerve to call IR (which was really just OPEL itself, after they let go their previous IR firm). I asked about why they thought Piney was liquidating and IR claimed not to know. I was even given an airy statement along the lines that OPEL wished he had spoken to them first so they could find a buyer for his shares.

Clearly OPEL knew something was amiss and didn't want shareholders to know. In the same conversation I was told that OPEL and Pinetree did have open discourse (not betraying any insider info of course) since they were such large shareholders going back to Q3 2010, I believe. To me this didn't make much sense. How could management and Piney have a dialogue without discussing why Shelly was dumping so hard?

BTW, the lions share of Piney's bug dump hadn't even happened at the time of this conversation, yet no effort was being made to "find a buyer" . . .

Pinetree's original interest in OPEL is a bit fuzzy. They first took an insider position in 2009, before OPEL had publicly disclosed their work at ODIS. As far as the regular shareholders knew OPEL was solar only. Somehow their insider status must have waned because another early warning was triggered soon after ODIS/POET was divulged to shareholders at the 2010 AGM.

So how much did Shelly know about POET in 2009? Was he invested in ODIS or OPEL Solar?

And why am I bringing all this up?!

Firstly, Sheldon got all his old shares back and then some through PP and open market. This this was after meeting our new management team and after we became committed to a POET only existence. Something brought him back, and it wasn't solar. I still don't know if Sheldon was always in it for POET, but he certainly is now.

Secondly, regardless of what he knows or doesn't know, we can use him as a barometer under the assumption that he will know as much or likely more than us. I will interpret his future actions or inactions as follows:

1) he sells nothing: he thinks his portfolio will recover on it's own using short term gains in compaines he holds to close the $60M gap. I obviously can't be sure POET can deliver such gains, but after this post I might calculate what it would take for POET to solve his problems before the Sep 13 deadline.

2) he sells other holdings - not POET: he realizes that selling POET would be a bad idea given short term prospects. good for us.

3) he sells some POET: this one is the toughest one. He's in trouble, so locking in profits while settling his default is not a bad idea. Also, if POET is going to pay what we think it might, then maybe he can take some money off the table and still score bigtime. Unfortuanltely this scenario tells us the least because it could turn into another 2011, where he is selling and we can't be sure why. Also, he might sell into great news and kill momentum, not because he wants to but becasue he has to.

In the end, I don't see how selling POET will help because if I understand Piney's problems, the $60M he needs can come from raising cash or increasing the value of his portfolio. I think the best strategy would be to wait until the last minute and sell some losers.

PS. I think, unlike our 2011 BOD, our current management team is proactive and would engage Piney in advance of some mass selling to find a buyer for his shares instead of standing idly by while he dumps on the open market and depressess the SP to pre-regime change levels.

Chris, if you're still reading the board, I would request that you give POET a heads up next time you speak with them, that we might be vulnerable to Sheldon's financial woes, just to be safe.