If anything,
posted on
Aug 27, 2013 03:12PM
as a collective I think we are unique, or at least very rare in that we have more information than the average investor. For example, I personally can't recall ever being able to critique facts published in news articles and blogs to the extent that we haver been on this board. And I'm not talking about that recently posted writeup with the grammar errors, I'm talking about the BK article and even the PCWorld article!
I'd say that at this point we know more than 95% of potential investors - big and small. I say that because not only do we have knowledge of the current plan, but we have a cleaar understanding OPEL's turbulent history in the correct context. A cursory glance at OPEL's 3 yr chart, or a quick glance at our solar failure doesn't tell the whole story. In this case, having only a little DD could lead a new investor to form the wrong conclusions.
I agree with posters suggesting that the SP is saying that sideliners want to see POET derisked further before taking a larger position. I also think these sideliners see risk in POET's inability to secure any contracts to date, and even see related risk in their inability to attract other investors.
So where am I going with this?
I think the market estimation of risk is totally exaggerated, and this has provided us, who have first class DD, a rare opportunity to take a position of any size prior to a major SP increase. We have been assured that the technology risk associated with POET is minimal. Granted, this assessment came prior to addition of the 100nm target to the list of milestones. But POET (OPEL) announced that they were going to work towards the 100nm gate size back in Dec 2012, it just wasn't at the forefront.
So in conclusion, I believe that the risk is far less than the market believes it is. I think we are in a moment in time where the SP is weighed down with exaggerated concerns about technology and the ability to secure contracts. I think even the next couple of milestones (MS5 & MS7) have a chance at improving the situation on their own. There are very few technical achievements required once Q4 begins, assuming we are on schedule, and that *has* to mean something to the informed investor!