Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Message: My Thoughts

I'm reading the latest release of info and considering the opinions of everyone who has commented so far. I'm trying to weigh everything and take a pause before replying, because comments have ranged from insightful to asinine. I don't want to pick fights, so I'll stick to the comments that merit a reply.

First of all, I think it's great that the company is willing to use other means besides NRs to share it's views on, well, anything. If this is the beginning of a trend I think we'll all be grateful to be more in the loop. I also hope that the response on this board isn't making them second guess their decision.

In a related point regarding POET's motivation regarding this outreach to its shareholders and the public, I have two points to add. One, POET may be speaking to us via the website, but their real target could be anyone they think could be following current events. I made the point earlier that anything that comes from POET must inform us, but it must also play into their strategy. Maybe Intel needed a smack for some reason. And before anyone rides me about this being a misstep or something you just don't do, have a listen this clip to realize that something like this was always part of the plan:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_detailpage&v=wv249NrEtkY#t=203

PC: "... We are hiring a PR firm in San Francisco that strictly tells stories that has to do with Silicon Valley type investors and companies . . .they're going to position us as to: 'Intel is this big' or 'one of the foundries is this big, why are they shaking with POET being right beside them?'"

Now, listening beyond this sound byte will be a bit of a sore spot since no appreciable buying form US investors took place as hoped. Clearly they need to see interest from someone like Intel before taking a bite. Personally I think POET should have anticipated this given that Lee S described his early meetings with folks who have had money taken from them investing in Si photonics - "the latest destroyer of investment capital". My point on that clip is that POET always planned to play hardball and this message is for us AND Intel.

I think the "rejection" hypothesis has already been weakened by the realization that POET has only very recently begun making serious overtures to the companies they hope to attract. Iamsorry's recount of the latest AGM makes this pretty clear. I truly think we are still following Plan A, although this doesn't preclude some refinements based on information coming in. I agree with Aves that it's likely POET has been making contact with companies all along, or at least since the TO investors meeting. The recording itself is proof of that. Nevertheless, the real meetings wouldn't have taken place until the WP was produced and that did not occur until late June at the earliest.

As for Intel, I'm of two minds about them. If they have had meetings with them I think there are a couple of likely outcomes. One is that they could have rejected POET knowing that they have time and money to wait. They could take a risk and continue to shrink their chips incrementally, to a size that few (if any) companies have the ability to develop. If they were successful, they could regain lost market share. This is of course pure arrogance and Vegas-casino style gambling. If they are wrong, a company like AMD could make the whole industry stop talking about nanometer shrinkage, and start talking about all the devices that have suddenly become possible with whopping 100nm processors inside. Intel would be dead in the water, eventually. I'm sure they could still coexist until about 2020 but for the second time (read ARMH) they would find themselves on the outside looking in on a whole host of products.

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