Re: What would be better, licensing or buyout?
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 18, 2014 03:03PM
I am ultra-cautious when it comes to valuations.
If I let the heart takeover, then if a game can sell for billions (Candy Crsuh) or a messaging service for $19 Billion. Then a high grade, revolutionary, technologicically disruptive microprocessor which will start at the high end of the entire microprocesor industry. You can suggest that within 2 years PTK will gather 20% of a 1/2 to 3/4 trillion US Dollar market. If I struggle with the maths, this suggests an annual revenue for PTK in the region of $100,000,000,000 - i.e. 100 billion dollars per annum. That makes it much larger than Intel in revenue terms. I place this colossal figure on the forum to give some idea of what lies within the bounds of posibility.
If I let the head takeover, I think development will be much slower and penetration of the market much more gradual. Initially penetration will be in high end usage, where ultrafast processing is required. So it is likely to be considered by companies who wish to trawl huge databases or vast information collections e.g. Intelligence gathering, monitoring multi-input data e.g. driverless automobiles, accident avoidance; space investigation, astronomy and, of course, milititary. Historically, all long-term computer users will be aware of this phenomenon, if high end usage takes off it will percolate into lower-end products over time. This is a much slower increase in revenues and the more likely.
However, in 1984 I bought a Tandy (Radio Shack in North America) PC. It had 64kb of storage on floppy discs. It ran on MSdos and I learned to manipulate it and use ASCII text. It cost me over £3500 with a Daisy Wheel Printer (in my family it was the day I filled my credit card and my pants). I could produce perfect documents and it had a very simple linear database. Do you know what! I thought it was fantastic. But, over time, things speeded up and I used to vie with my hospital colleagues who had the fastest this and that. Eventually we arrived at 2.7 GHz microprocessors, 1 Terabyte storage, 8 Gb RAM WiFi, Bluetooth. Every manjack on the planet wanted faster and more storage (wives are more circumspect, I'm sure you will agree), Silicon obliged but then it slowed and now has stopped - blue screen of death, fetid aroma, white dot on screem Aaaagh!
Guess what I did! I bought into a company that could repeat this all over again. I think it will penetrate the market slowly but revenue will build. If you hang on in there and management has courage, willpower and stamina, then the rewards over the next 5 years could be astounding; thats what I think. Get a vision for POET, strike now, defeat nay crush all opposition and make POET a Global name for itself. Dare I suggest a change of name, let me see, - Shakespeare Microprocessor Industires (known by its ticker code SMI on the NASDAQ). Its motto must become: not the world but the universe. I can see it now. Join the club.
David