Re: Warrants Explanation from a non-professional
in response to
by
posted on
May 01, 2014 02:32PM
Steve, just one point where I will add something relative to your argument about the price of POET stock at the time the warrant is exercised (and, presumably, the shares issused to the warrant holder are sold promptly thereafter - and, warrant holders almost always intend to sell the shares issued to them if they exercise their warrant rights well before the expiry date). Hereafter, I refer to shares purchased as the result of warrant exercise as "warrant shares."
One could make the argument that it would be better to have the price at $5, than $1.75, because a $5 price would imply that POET is a much "hotter," more desirable stock than POET share at a $1.75 price. It may be easier to unload those warrant shares for $5, than for $1.75. But, in any event, regardless of the share price, it's the recent direction of the share price which will determine the effect of the dump of the warrant shares on the market.
For example, those warrant holders who exercised a week or two before the EC and had the smarts to sell early, sold into a rising market, and as you know, our share price just kept on truckin' north. But plenty waited to sell their shares, figuring they would get a better price. Well, what happened, I believe, is that the potential warrant-share sellers started to figure things out, and thought, "Hmmm, maybe I'd better sell my shares a bit in advance of the EC event." People in similar situations tend to think and act similarly, so all of a sudden, here came the selling, which begat more selling as other warrant holders/warrant share holders figured, "uh, oh I need to get out quick." And so they exercised and sold or sold the shares they had recently bought upon their exercise.
The falling share price spooked some retail, too, just look around. To me, CC's comments a couple of nights ago, coupled with the behavior and sentiments of this board yesterday, indicated that the cycle had stopped. However, if warrants keep getting exercised, another may start. I'm a little less worried at this point, though, because, as you know, I felt that the EC Event had as one of its functions, a little something for the warrant holders (important investors to the company and to IBK) to take advantage of. Advantage was taken. Further sales of warrant shares will hopefully occur only when good news is released or the share price is trending strongly upward.