A case against a POET "Machine"
posted on
Jun 19, 2014 04:54PM
HP's Machine has been coming up in conversation very often lately and it has even been implied that POET may be part of HP's plan. I strongly disagree with this possibility. As Aves pointed out, POET could conceivably be part of HP's future iterations of their "Machine", but HP are certainly not proceeding on the assumption POET will be part of it. And if POET ever finds its way into the heart of “the machine” it will be because HP didn’t have a choice.
First of all, POET isn't finished yet. MS8 isn't complete, and it would have cost HP nothing to wait until the end of this month to make a joint announcement. HP seems to be relying on the mystique of their memristor technology to drive their "Machine" into the consciousness of the tech community. Announcing POET would have done this to an even greater degree since POET is still unknown, while memristors have been on the radar for years as a known focus of R&D effort HP.
Secondly, POET isn't driving towards a "POET" based solution at this time. They are focusing on PET. This strongly implies that POET's first joint venture relies heavily on the electronic capabilities of our IP, without the optical parts. HP is looking to combine the optical and electronic combination right out of the gate using silicon photonics.
And this brings me to my third point. The manufacture of POET isn't really an economic solution unless you are combining the functionality of multiple chips into one. Don't get me wrong, end users will see a huge economic benefit in terms of power savings. And companies may also charge more for the improved performance that only a POET-based solution provides, and they can recoup their added costs that way. So for this reason I find it hard to imagine that HP would make a huge investment of time and money in developing a Si-photonics manufacturing process when POET's optical capabilities will be cheaper and available on a shorter time frame.Remember: one of POET’s biggest advantages is that existing equipment can be used to make it.This is almost certainly not true for “The Machine”
And finally, even though HP is posting up some big numbers to describe the performance improvements provided by their new package, it pales in comparison to POET.It could only stave off POET for a short time, but it can’t outperform it in the long run.The last article I had time to read on HP said it would improve performance 6 times.POET’s low estimates suggest a 10 times improvement.
There will always be competition and much of it comes from established companies. But until someone can prove up a Si-photonics solution and a new way to dissipate heat on a Si processor there is nothing to fear./IMO