Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

Free
Message: Pro Forma Projections

Good Saturday everyone, Thank you for all the kind messages. I was a little late in returning your responses due to an evening flight, but have completed them and returned back to you.

I had mentioned in a previous post that my background was in hardware and the marketing and sales of such and not much of an expertise in the engineering or processing side. So I will leave that to others who are much better at that science than I, and as an aside, I want to add that I appreciate the hard work shown on this forum. I sometimes think a few should be getting a regular subscription fee for their opinion and expertise.

Some of the inboxes received were related to my comments on cash flow and the coming POET mania (spoiler alert for the purists-I will be speculating here). Lets see if I can elaborate into meaningful verbiage. Notes from our CFO, and articles from the internet used here.

Growth and value are two fundamental approaches in stock and stock mutual fund investing. Many growth stock mutual fund managers look for stocks of companies that they believe offer strong earnings growth potential, while value fund managers look for stocks that appear undervalued by the marketplace. Some fund managers combine the two approaches. "Emerging" growth companies are those that may have the potential to achieve high earnings growth, but have not established a history of strong earnings growth.

One could assume that the potentail quarterly-yearly revenues will be substantive for the company. The question being, how substantive might they be and what would be the resulting effect on the stock. Now there are a couple of provisos here, one of which is margins and the other what the OTD (out the door) rate and cost is for the product.

In POETS case, in the beginning anyway, marketing and sales will drive cash flow. Early on though their fate will switch from marketing to customer driven demands. So much so they will require a limited marketing budget as social media, and word of mouth will dot hat job for them. In a twitter universe, its will take between 8-14 seconds for the word to get out that ``John Does`new phone requires 80% less power etc etc. Within 24 hours, the globe will know this and have a very strong yen to know who, what, where, when, how.

POETs customers products will eventually have an Apple like fervored following, again a mania spread through social media, the end user companies marketing, and word of mouth will suffice to light a fire and cause a kilo-ton explosion of interest globally. Along with all of the advantages a POET product has, it could be wrapped in a ``green``style campaign (ala everybody), a life style campaign (ala Apple), a productivity campaign (ala Blackberry), etc. Thats just handsets. This product, by the way is a marketing persons dream, with not just one but multiple ``hot button`` features.

So what does this mean to the pro forma earnings potential, well we ran a couple of models in the office a month or so ago, and not wanting to raise eyebrows or the consternation of the sour and the damned, I will refrain from placing that documents contents on here.

(PM if you want the numbers)

Rather will give a basic idea of which to discuss from.

Assumptions were made in the area of market share, and margins. We used a 5% Market Share that would be obtainable in or by the end of revenue year 2. Margin is a bit nebulous but we used 10% for ease of calculations. Just a note, in my business, margins can run 25-to over 100% and more. We used 3 levels of calculations, ultra-conservative, conservative, and aggressive.

Most fun managers are happy with a return a few points above inflation, anything more and they become god like. Most if not all fund managers spend every waking hour looking for returns, stable and steady returns, POET will provide this for them and in spades.POET will provide them with consistent year to year and increasing growth for many years. POET will be a cash machine, like an Apple, and in doing so will give the investor, fund manager, etc a very secure and healthy balance sheet. That word, that earnings multiple, that cash influx will spread like wildfire as well.

Me, I am most excited about all the marketing that POET can generate, how life altering it can be and not only a paradigm shift, but it will become a generational tool for the masses.

It remains to be seen how as yet, but the futures pretty bright I would say.



Aug 23, 2014 12:03PM
27
Aug 23, 2014 12:38PM
4
Aug 23, 2014 07:13PM
Share
New Message
Please login to post a reply