Is the performance poor?
posted on
Sep 03, 2014 08:16PM
The issue of PET performance is a tricky one. In truth, there is vagueness about the claims of its performance in the latest news releases and this does raise questions. But, statements from other sources such as communications to journals imply performances that exceed current Silicon microprocessors. It is impossible for anyone on this forum to know, with certainty, what a 40nM node PET processor can achieve compared with current best Silicon performance. The news releases make no reference to power consumption either, though, again from other sources and previous comparisons it is very significant and this matches the theory.
My take on all this is that the management do not want to make claims that have any hint of outlandish performance for tactical reasons at this stage. It may protect the company from hostility by minimising performance parameters now but simply to suggest there are some. It is probable that, over the next 3 - 6 months, a series of testable microprocessors will become available for customer inspection along with the software to develop them. Tactically, it would be better to announce their performance when they are available and tested and there are potential or actual purchasers.
Additionally, there is every prospect that 40nM microprocessors can be step improved in both clock speed and transistor density. In financial terms, once NRE income and licensing arrangements occur, revenue will be better sustained with gradual improvements in performance over the years ahead, particularly as Silicon's improvement will grind slowly to a halt and at vast cost. Issuing PET microprocessors at the limit of their capacity on first release will only delay their first release and may limit the revenues they can earn. If you wish to maximise shareholder value, in the long term, this may be a wholly appropriate way of wording a news release.
Remember too that POET microprocessors, with its integration of optical and other electromagnetic spectrum elements, will also require development but my understanding is it's the PET microprocessor that will arrive first; it is the direct competitor of CMOS Si processors. I adhere to the known scientific issue here: Gallium Arsenide based microprocessors, using POET techniques for manufacture, will be cheaper to produce, faster and use substantially less power than any equivalent Silicon CMOS microprocessor, the theoretical advantages indicate it to be so. That cannot be demonstrated now but will occur in due course.
Finally, the recent news releases are very difficult for even experienced POET investors to interpret and outside that group even more so. I would not expect a sudden and huge increase in investors as a result of this news release. Expect better when a NASDAQ or equivalent listing occurs, when accurate information of performance becomes available and there are known customers and revenue; then the large investors will want in. The disappointments of the share price are all tied up in this; it will change.
David