Re: POET warrants
posted on
Jan 06, 2015 11:36PM
Ok I'll chime in on this. There are many unknowns regarding the individuals holding warrants and their abilities or desires to exercise them and sell into the market. What is known is that there are roughly 7.5 million (according to some bean counters here) that are due to expire Feb 14, 2015. This is not fear mongering. This is fact. As Feb 14 approaches I think it would be reasonable to assume that some holders with enough cash in hand, will exercise them and sell into the market, providing they want some quick realized gains. This depending on the value of the sp at that time of course. No one here knows the purchasing power or willingness to sell of all of those holders, one or two perhaps, but not all. It is fair to say that, as Feb 14 approaches there will be increasing pressures to execute as this is a limited time offer and Winnipeg, although the coupon capital of Canada, is not the only place people want deals. And a deal it would be. Let's be honest here. If we all had the money would we not exercise at .75. Of course we would. The bigger question is, "would you sell?" Will they sell? That is what will have the bigger impact on the short term sp value. I really don't care if they exercise or not. I have no control over that. Nor do I if some want to sell and make a few bucks. Fully diluted is in the range of 214 million shares. If for whatever reason some warrants are left to expire all it means is that the FD sp ends up higher (eventually) because there are fewer of them. I do not understand those that claim the warrants and number of them expiring in the next 5 weeks is detrimental to anyone here, unless you are looking to sell a significant portion of your portfolio in the next 6 weeks or so. Can there be a short term dip in the value if all are sold after being exercised? Yes. Does it matter once revenues are announced? No. Are you holding for the home run NR and selling shortly after. If so you are just like the warrant holder who wishes to sell once exercised. Too much to fully extrapolate on here but I'll touch on a couple points. The next two NRs will most likely not involve $s. The last 4 Nrs or so we're either great or benign but did not move the sp northward. We can not expect much movement until some form of revs are divulged. Since the CEO, main partner and 40nm prototypes are the next items due, I think it's fair to say that news that will drive this parabolic will be after that. There may be a NR including $s but I'm not expecting it right away. If they have managed that prior to a 40nm prototype, bravo. Show me the money. Start with NREs and then exclusive rights $s, and on and on. If those holding the warrants have been informed well enough to believe that holding onto their shares is the best course of action then the effect on short term sp value will be minimal. If not then expect a dip. So what? Not to be flippant here but really folks. We are all aware of what news should be coming first and next. They are all the foundation stones to the future mansions will will eventually be able to afford. Relax. Have a drink and watch what unfolds with interest and wonder, not fear and concern. I believe they have the goods and will get all of the i's dotted and T's crossed and present this to the world when ready. Not prematurely. So with that I hope this helps to allay some fears. Remain in the present and look forward to what is coming. It is wondrous. Derekwpg