"I personally don't think the warrant overhang would be meaningful in terms of resistance if the right news was issued"
Bang on.
If POET waits to release the news until after the warrants expire, I know they risk upsetting a series of people who laid a lot of good cash on the line when the company was down and out. These people own millions of shares and may still need to sell a few to raise a bit of cash to get the last warrants exercised. In fact I know they do. I am aware of folks as such who combined to own a decent amount of the company.
If they have the news, they should release it next week. The remaining warrants will not matter in the scheme of things - the people do matter (yes I am naive, and idealistic).
Otherwise, I could see this drift lower until Feb and they will have further (sub $1) to go to get to NASDAQ levels…in addition to clearly showing they are not in their larger shareholders corner …eyes on only the end prize.
In no way am I suggesting an ultimatum, POET mgmt are great people with excellent integrity …I simply think they should release the news if they have it.