Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Message: Re: Occam's razor
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May 01, 2015 08:53PM
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May 01, 2015 09:53PM

May 01, 2015 10:52PM

I did a similar exercise, Jon, even simpler.

I assumed that PC did overstate in his CIC salespitch. To me, that's within his persona as a capital markets guy, and I've heard him pitch in the past on behalf of POET.

I assumed that Ajit was kept somewhat in the dark on the problems with the two milestones, at least at the time of the CIC.

Now, here come two new directors, a new consultant and a new COO (collectively, the "Four"), by which time, even if Ajit was not "up to speed" at CIC time, he most certainly would have been by the time the new folk came on board.

I then assumed that the Four had some prior knowledge if not out and out relationship with Ajit.

The smallest amount of investigation by the Four would lead them to ask, so what's up with these two milestones (among a billion other questions).

Well, I'm sure they got an answer that satisfied them. Now, if the answer they got was, "we finally figured out some equipment was installed incorrectly," I'm sure they didn't stop there. I'm sure they asked in a bit more professional manner, "well, if that messed things up, how do you know there aren't other things wrong that are going to raise their heads once the installation is redone correctly?" My guess is that that question also had to be answered to their satisfaction, in a way they would understand, and that I would have no clue about.

So, although I don't have any idea whether or not the problem will be solved by merely correctly installing the mis-installed equipment, plus whatever time it takes, it appears to me that the Four, and especially our new COO would have a very good idea of that. His joining at this point, tells me what he thinks about the nature of the problem causing the delay. It is more one of a time delay, rather than existential in nature.

Time delay (I assume some people know how long of a delay is anticipated) plus PNP problems could cause the stock to act stupid, notwithstanding the promise which is, relatively speaking, around the corner.

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May 02, 2015 12:08AM
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