The $70-Club by numbers

Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Steve75

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The $70-Club by numbers

posted on Jul 06, 2015 07:30AM

While waiting for news in SP-ranges of $1.60 may one or the other considers the notorious $70-Club far off.

Well, let us use the time to recall resp. take a closer look at some numbers all around this popular quotation, using the following assumptions:

Global semiconductor market in 2016: $355 billions

Amount of shares in 2016: 250.000.000 (fully diluted, together with some more shares for “happy bankers”)

P/E-ratio: 60 (according to ARM using a similar license model)

Revenue: 8% (according to the Pellegino-reports)

Now let’s do a rough calculation excluding NRE, costs and taxes- here we go:

$70 / ($355,000,000,000 x 0.08 / $250,000,000 x 60) = 0.01

As you see, from a straight mathematical point of view (no hype, no future anticipation etc. considered) the journey from $1.60 to $70 will take as long as it will take to gain market penetration of roughly just 1%.

So this will be the point when the $70-Club opens its doors: 1% of the semiconductor market using Poet-technology. Everyone who believes this can happen- welcome to the club right now.

Someone thinks of 10%? Well, let me ask my calculator for the according SP… Damn! It got broken just by now… So, you have to do this one on your own… ;-)