Re: POET is what should matter to us now, not PET
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 23, 2015 05:42AM
Good to see you out of hybernation Scary but have you got the season right.
I think most people agree that around 18 months of work up to say August of this year, ending with the BAE short contract, was spent pursuing the PET based opertional goal that I call 'low hanging fruit' and that this was largely done at the behest of a big customer who was calling the shots on milestones.
You're right to say that management have clearly stated their goal but they also prewarned us they could not speak about certain matters. It is what was not said that I am concerned about and anything I say is speculation until management state otherwise. For example they would not say anything that would affect cmmercial interest and that includes a deal with a customer.
So where we differ in opinion, and yours is as speculative as mine over this issue, is that those 18 months of work on 'low hanging fruit' had no conclusion. I beg to differ.
If what our CEO said 'clearly' is the basis of your argument The biggest clue we have that the 'low hanging fruit' operational plan is still underway is the Q&A anwer that Synopsys remains critical to to quote SV
'While the VCSEL is the central theme of our first product, we still need the electronic devices to achieve true monolithic integration. To that end, understanding the behavior and modeling of our devices remains critical and thus our engagement with Synopsys continues'.
Furthermore, is as you suggest 'low hanging fruit' had failed surely management has an obligation to explain that they have not. They have not said what was the conclusion of the work with BAE, or the outcome of the June Milestones accept they were changed for commercial intersts. Given the synopsys arrangement contiues it is entirely possible that the customer is developing POET IP in his own products, that was the whole point of PET and selling IP - to allow customers to design and build their own products.
As regards your point ' initial NRE is expected 2H2016, SV clearly means the VCSEL project. This does not exclude other projects that are already underway that he cannot mention for commercial inconfidence reasons..
THere is no personal motivee in my cursade as you rudely suggest, and I am now in danger of boring the readership, but I think it is you who is blinkered to the reality of a dynamic business where a number of projects can be undertaken at one time. The operational plan annouced is just one to fulfil the Strategic aim of Monetisation in 2015. Yes PTI have insufficient resources to do two at present, but that is why they need a 40 engineer deal and that is what a 'Big Customer' can provide. You are wrong to dismiss this possiblity.
You are right and were right, as you have previously posted, to point out to us that projects take longer than the majority here understand. Winter approaches, so back to hybernation for glum bears and raccoons whilst this all pans out and all will be revealed in due course.
Would not the best solution for sharehoders be, that the 40 engineer deal is still alive and kicking, at an advanced stage but not farenough to announce until the Big Customer is happy, which achieve the IP revenue goal ofmanetisation and allows PTI's limited resources to focus with Anadigics on VCSEL production.
I like this view better than yours and it is entirely possible.
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