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Message: Re: Breakfast in Frankfurt (Asian Manufacturers )
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Nov 21, 2015 03:48AM

If TSMC then maybe A11? http://www.fool.com/investing/general/2015/11/21/tsmc-said-to-be-the-sole-manufacturer-of-apple-inc.aspx

"I suspect that in addition to winning the entirety of the A10 orders, the superior performance/power characteristics of TSMC's 16-nanometer FinFET Plus technology should allow it to win the entirety of the orders for the next-generation iPad-exclusive chip, likely to be called the A10X, next year.

After all, the A10X is a higher-performing, harder-to-manufacture variant of the A10, so it seems only natural that if Samsung's 14-nanometer LPP wasn't good enough for the A10, then it's not going to be good enough for the A10X.

The picture is a little less clear for what happens after the 14/16-nanometer generation. TSMC seems to be quite confident that it will be able to begin mass production of its 10-nanometer technology by the end of 2016. Unlike the situation with 14/16-nanometer, where TSMC had a bit of a late start relative to Samsung, TSMC should be in a position to start building the next-generation A11 chips on its 10-nanometer process beginning at the end of next year.

From what I've been told by a source with knowledge of the situation, Samsung is still in the running for the A11 orders. Although I'm sure Apple would like to foster competition between Samsung and TSMC in order to get the best deal it can on wafer prices, I am inclined to think TSMC has the upper hand at the 10-nanometer generation given its strong technical execution at the 14/16-nanometer generation.

If Samsung can deliver a 10-nanometer process with comparable performance/power/area characteristics to TSMC's 10-nanometer process at good manufacturing yields, then I expect Apple to "split" the orders as it did with the A9. However, if one foundry winds up with a significant lead in performance/power/area as well as manufacturing yields, then I would expect Apple to go with the foundry with the better solution.

I suspect we'll learn more about Apple's process choice(s) for the A11 by next year. "

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