Baba,
I agree with everything you say about the SP and where/when it will go (likely). Same thoughts spinning in my head.
PNP? I don´t care too much in the long run. Whether they exercise or not, will move the SP for a little while, but it will soon be forgotten. We have heard a lot of theories about it, yours is quite rational. And that is what it´s about at institutional investors: rational decisions to make money. I don´t know PNP but that´s their kind. So this might be a possible scenario, too. Take the money and run, if possible. But even if they exercise and keep these shares: they can´t control Poet or am I wrong? So why all that fuss? PNP is shareholder already, so I don´t understand it.
Looking at the charts, share price seems to be some kind of.....controlled, managed, conducted. Maybe it has something to do with the warrants? Any forces don´t like your scenario and try to keep PNP away? Once again: it´s about rational decisions. It´s business, so personal dislike is not a good reason, money and power are strong reasons. I can´t see any such reward for this effort, but there must be something.
As I am not sure about the basic assumptions (controlled share price, personal feelings, money-reward) it´s hard to develop thoughts further. And I am tired of thinking about it because soon it will end, I hope. I don´t think this will last through march, there´s too much ahead. The Year of Poet has just begun.
Holk