posted on
May 18, 2016 04:26PM
Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications
Message: Blue Ocean vs EBITDA
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PTK: I can only see the speed of POET the way the SP goes down... very fast... :)
Rainer: Who cares! At least I don't.
Rainer, we should all care, because its the low share price that causes excess dilution year after year on options grants, financing, and issuing of shares for acquisitions, etc. One could add low ball buyout to the list but I don't believe thats relevant at this stage.
For example if the recent acquisitions took place at a higher price (say $2 where we were about a year ago), the recent number of shares issued would be cut in half.
Add up all the other events where options or shares were issued over the last few years at these ridiculously low prices and you quickly find your shares diluted by a significant amount extra. That makes a huge difference if we ever get to the double digits.
One would think short term price (i.e or the low price we have been dealing with over the last several years) is irrelevant for the long term with what is expected of POET....but in fact it eats away at your investment when it comes times to issue shares at the current market price.
When I first invested, a 1 billion market cap was around $8-10 share. In the recent year or so we were in the $4.5-5 range. Now we are hovering around $4 fully diluted. Elapsed time and low price throughout certainly have a significant effect on your investment...
It is what it is, but I don't agree we shouldn't care.
As an aside, if they had left out some of the revenue related comments in the presentation and just focused on the acquisitions and product road map during the THM, we would possibly still be in the 1.30+ range or continuing the run higher as these topics created considerable excitement. As another poster, pointed out, it was unnecessary to bring up EBITDA expectations yesterday.
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