Charting a Course During Rough Weather
posted on
Aug 08, 2016 05:27AM
Dear remaining POET friends,
Buy Venture Capital and you're in for a rough ride. We certainly seem to be experiencing a patch of bad weather. For some it would seem the ride is so rough that they feel POET has had a lost year of no progress I can understand his gloom when he feels his hopes for a higher share price have been dashed. But wanting it all and wanting it now seems to me to be more akin to the red mist of a tantrum. Lets see if we can sooth fears and decide whether this gloomy weather is based on emotion or fact?
We cannot ignore that other respected poster have pulled out on what seems to be the lack of explanation to the amount of power claimed as potential Data Centre savings using POET AOCs This fact is undoubtedly a factor in how well PTI will do in this particular vertical but I cannot help but suspect that the calculations for the actual savings are far more deep reaching than merely ones simply based on the numbers of units per centre times power saved per unit. SV used the term operational costs which may incude many more factors than pure electrical consumption per cable. So one has to ask whether this issue is really just a matter of ensuring we are comparing like with like and not oranges to pears. Regardless, I see every reason that we should be given a clearer explanation from the company to back their claims. So yes there is a concern there, but as a reason to cash in I think its premature. But the the old adage comes to mind here 'if you can keep you head whislt other around you are losing theirs - you've probably misspreciated the situations' - make your own judgement.
What about SP progresst then? The assembly of an A Class management team, the aquistion of Denselight and BB, producing a detector with 2000 times more sensitivity than current detectors seems to me to be on the credit side in the last year yet this was ignored by the markets. Why this does not transalate into SP advancement is down to the Venture's ficle nature. For me after years on this path there should be no surprises when the share price stagnates or swings in the wrong direction even in reaction to good news. When this happens we should remind ourselves of the fundementals is PTI still strong or not, and they are.
Apart from the predictions on energy saving, which does need an answer, I would say the fundementals are stronger now than they have ever been. POET's disruptive technology is aimed at a growing market at just about the right time. Growth in the Area is seen a a strong investment motive by analysts. Yes serendipity and Alfalight has caused understandable delays but we are told that twe can catch up, that the engineering is doable and as no changes have been made in the timetable to indicte further delays we seem to be catching up Furthermore, technically, we now have a detector which is 2000 times more sensetive which is a product in its own right, but moreso , it is an essential part of the AOC we are building and will no doubt a factor in the overall potential performance of this first POET product so we therefore should be hopeful about performance figures when they are annouced.
On the SP I would say that whilst we have a right to hear about material changes, quarterly and annual reports, etc.. but there is absolutely no right to have news just to boost a lagging share price. To do so would be a real sign to the market that PTI was a basket case company. I am sorry about peoples dashed hopes for SP progress but no amount of wingeing here from the glums should justify premature news reports..
What other explanations are there for lack of progress? Logic and experience dictates that August is classically a quite month for investing. People have lots of other important things to think about like family holidays. But September now that's different, its the start of the final quarter of the year , the days shorten and its time to get on with some new projects and to get motivated. Kids go back to school, students start their University and College courses and we the grey-back retirees enrol on the next pet educational course, intermediate Welsh Language in my case . Yes September is a special time to get down to some serious work, hit those targets and sure enough the markets will get back into action and companies will want to impress.
This is an uncomfortable period but I like where POET is going. I have no means of calculating its efficacy in the market its entering, but I am certain that if you claim to have a disruptive product, the manner and timing in which you reveal information publically about that product needs to be handled very carefully. Drip feeding performance news on the progress of each development stage of a potentially disruptive product is providing vital material and intelligence to your competition that enables them to counter the effect of the product's launch. Paul Gagnon warned of this error on the part of the company during his tenure, lets learn this important lesseon. Silence is a mandatory part of good management. Glooms must just accept this curb illogical demands for news
My message to the glums is that the news they crave to propel their hopes forward will be delivered when the product is complete and operating to predicted performance levels for both manufacturing and operation. Let us have confidence that we have a good management team who are planning a product launch at a particular chosen moment in time in the not too distantf uture and they need to plan to do that in the most effective way.
as ever,
sula