Re: House Positions for October... so far
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 27, 2016 03:06PM
Rainer, first of all let me please share my appreciation for everything you contribute to this board. Re: "Hopefully some day people will start to understand the difference between share price and shareholder value!" and "The shareholder value hasn't changed for the worse".
I respectfully disagree, although we don't know the outcome for sure as to whether shareholder value has increased or decreased (longer term) as a result of the PO. This is yet to be seen, but IMO, shareholder value has changed for the worse, not to say we can't still make a lot of money, but likely not as much now due to significant dilution. Since we like the details of definitions, a few lines from this link (definition):
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Shareholder_value
A few quotes from this (bold is mine):
Under The term is is used in several ways - "To refer to the concept that the primary goal for a company is to increase the wealth of its shareholders (owners) by paying dividends and/or causing the stock price to increase"
Under Definitions - "For a publicly traded company, Shareholder Value (SV) is the part of its capitalization that is equity as opposed to long-term debt. In the case of only one type of stock, this would roughly be the number of outstanding shares times current share price"
So, if for example we finance at $0.50 for 15 million dollars (yet to be seen), including a full warrant, this represents 60 million shares or ~ 25% dilution. Bottom line here is that when POET succeeds and makes lots of revenue, and when an accurate share price can be determined based on fundamentals, our shares will be worth 25% less (give or take) than they would have been before this dilution.
We can argue that the money is needed, and this is all we can do, however I have not been told through official channels that they need money, in fact I heard about a strong balance sheet and enough money to last us until we get revenue from the POET IP. If something is up (positive) for why they need the money, that is great, and I look forward to hearing about it. If they are using the money for typical expenses, I feel this is a grave mistake and I also feel misled. This will help us determine whether or not shareholder value has significantly changed, and in which direction.
As far as whether fundamentals have changed, they have in terms of the number of shares. In terms of technical fundamentals, I don't know as I have not seen any updates through official channels with any meat, although I am optimistic that they have made progress and are well on the way to sorting out any engineering issues, and management seems confident and competent (technically). Bring us a prototype!
Having said all of that, I am still optimistic and I am still here, although I acknowledge that the current SP is dismal, and I hope we get a huge positive surprise sooner, rather than later. We need a strong rebound and I am not talking about 10 - 20% increase in SP. Call me a glum and negative, but I am just stating my opinion (about shareholder value), and in fact, I am currently glum and negative as I feel like I am getting screwed over.
I wish all longs the best of luck, stay strong and hang in there, things have to get better. Hopefully all of this is a plan initiated by our new IR - short term pain for long term gain. I will hurry up and wait to find out.