Decent analysis, lumenge, thank you! Very plausible, unfortunately including the "no SV means no coming out party at the PIC" part.

I still hope we'll also get some sort of an update on the POET technology, but I wouldn't bet on it. After finding alternative ways of epitaxial supply, they should definitely have made progress since autumn by now. The technology is challenging, but no witchcraft.

My speculation is that due to Mikaism they want to keep this baby under the hood as long as possible, while at the same time placing their micro multiplexer/de-multiplexer solutions in the full limelight. After all, they have something to sell here almost immediately: "Engineering samples are expected to be available in the second quarter of 2017 with production commencing in the second half of the year."