Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Message: Re: Market, always right?

Jun 16, 2017 08:12AM
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Jun 16, 2017 10:01AM

The market (as envisioned as the SP) is neither right, nor wrong.

It is simply a presentation of what is.

It is the investor that overlays values of "right" and "wrong" on what the market is.

 

The market (as the collective understanding of the value of a company) can be accurate (a fair representation of the company) or inaccurate (an unfair - higher or lower - representation). 

Sometimes investing in a company that is fairly valued and continues to succeed will generate profits for the investor ("value investment" a la Mr. Buffet) or sometimes it will fail (e.g., what happened with AIM in the last month).

Investors can also make (and lose) money when the collective agreement of the market undervalues or overvalues a company. Few would argue that POET's SP of what 3/4 billion a few years ago was slightly overvalued for a company that was still years away (and counting) from a product - or at least to say, it likely would have changed their outlook had they known the future. Likewise, speculative investors look for investments that have taken a beating when collective understanding of the market value of a company has turned irrational the other direction (possibly where POET is now?).

The "problem" is that there is not much of a story behind POET anymore - or at lest the story (miracle cure to Moore's law) has faded to the background except by a select few hopeful investors. Without the story to drive PTK, we are hoping that it will turn into a value investment - as I would submit that current management (with big - and real - company experience) is pushing for.

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