In my opinion the presentation looks fine technology-wise. The VCSEL optimization seems to have been completed, now they are working on performance optimization of the electronics (BICFET, slide 22).
I was surprised by the high revenue proposition of the InP hybrid technology (BB Photonics technology, slide 8), and it is good to see its commercialization to start this year.
The most interesting info in my opinion is the revenue projection graph, sorry, revenue potential graph (slide 23). Unfortunately it doesn't show numbers for the individual years, but bars only. Having counted the pixels, I'd say the estimate is about $3 millions in 2017 and $11 millions in 2018. These are the two critical years; if we can sustain them, everything will be fine.
However, the projection of $14 millions in 2017 and 2018 falls short of $5 to $10 millions that what would be needed until the end of 2018. Consequently this money has to come from elsewhere, which would mean either
- another financing round,
- a loan,
- execution of warrants,
- a higher revenue than has been conservatively estimated, or
- any combination of the above.
Remember that the "revenue potential [is] based on conservative adoption rates of highly differentiated products in each market". That is, it is the minimum of what should be possible, at least according to the assesment of POET's management, so revenue might actually be higher. For example the milestone (read: not yet achieved) "engage strategic partner(s)" might bring in considerable NRE revenue, reducing the need for financing.
Summary:
- The technology is on track, which should support the share price.
- Financial uncertainties remain, which should confine the share price for now.
