Mo: You need first to make sure that Poet has submitted their bid. No info has confirmed that, up to now.

I beg to disagree. We won't get any confirmation from POET Technologies about such ongoin things, like being in discussions with company X or having submitted a bid to the tender of company Y. Not before things are settled! Winning a bid and closing a contract would mean settled things, but not having submitting a bid.

So we cannot be 100 % sure that POET has really submitted that bid. However, mo, would you claim that POET has not submitted the bid? Would you say the probability of having submitted is 0 %? Probably not! Assuming that they didn't submit requires much more assumptions than assuming the opposite.

Ockham's Razor says: They submitted – probably. I'd give it a careful and conservative 90 % probability.