So it seems pretty clear that POET will be a winner, with volume production orders starting in H2 2019, after successful qualification of the transmit/receive optical engine in Q2 2019. Qualification of active optical components takes a looooong time and can't be accelerated.

It also seems pretty clear that the company will get there somehow. The question is not if, but how, i.e. non-dilutively, dilutively, or in some combination.

Anyway, it is pretty clear that POET is an attractive opportunity for new investment capital.

However, what is not so clear is at which point in time you should invest, because it is unclear how POET will get through H1 2019. What you think is the right time to invest, influences your investment decisions. If you think there will be a capital increase, then you will wait and see and not invest for the time being. Conversely, investment decisions of others have an impact on what the right time is: If others invest early and let the share price go up, exercising warrants could make a capital increase superfluous, and you can get in only at much higher prices.

In my opinion, the way to bring the share price up into regions where warrant holders might consider conversion, is to get new investors interested. Besides explaining POET's technology and business opportunities, pointing to the orders they received and the alliances with large, global, and strategic customers/partners they have, might indeed help. On the other hand, a dilutive financing is looming.

I expect the share price be driven by different groups of investors:

1. Those who want to get in early, i.e. before the SP goes north considerably. They run the risk of a dilutive financing.
2. Those who want to get in late and possibly only after a capital raise. They run the risk that a capital raise won't happen, because investors under 1. drive the SP into the warrant conversion range.
3. Those who want to get out due to investor fatigue.
4. Those who want or have to get out for various reasons.

Plus – or should I say: predominantly – the usual trading (aka "manipulation), of course. Traders will have a great time over the next months!