Predicting great success of even moderate success for a start up (then developmental tech company with no meaningful revenue or sales) is somewhat of a longshot, no matter how good you are at analysis.  After all, many expect a multi-bagger out of this yet, and certainly did back 6 or 7 years ago.  With great potential return, comes great risk.  It's always been that way, and likely will always be that way.  

No huge surprises when viewed properly over the years:  a speculative, risky investment, which had little to no chance with old leadership and now has a decent shot!