Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Message: Kevin Ded of HC Wainwright: "Mr. Market Appears to Vote in Favor—There Is Something Here; Reiterate Buy"

Kevin Ded of HC Wainwright: "Mr. Market Appears to Vote in Favor—There Is Something Here; Reiterate Buy"

posted on May 01, 2020 07:27AM

Of little importance, 4Q19 numbers released. Earlier this week, POET posted its December 2019 quarter (at the deadline), missing our estimates, but of trivial significance versus development progress the company has made on its Interposer platform, in our view, that appears well reflected in the doubling of the company's market cap over the past four to five weeks (vs. Nasdaq's 29% rebound since March 23). With no changes to our estimates or $1.50 price target, we clearly continue to see greater upside as Interposer attracts multiple clients' non-recurring engineering (NRE) dollars through the balance of this year while pushing closer to commercialization at year-end, a target we still see as viable. Per our April 6 note, Covid Schmovid, You Can't Lose Business You Don't Already Have; Cash Heavy—Asset Light; Reit Buy, POET's opportunity is just beginning to blossom—after April's showers—supported by the $21M in cash collected (to date) from the Chinese outfit buying POET's Singapore-based DenseLight subsidiary; the remaining $5M of the $26M deal is expected at the end of May.

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Maintaining our Buy rating and $1.50 price target. Our price target, originally formulated more than two years ago, we think still presents a fair target for POET's shares, in its equally weighted composite of two method construction: (1) a discounted cash flow model extending through 2025, with a 1% terminal growth assumption, and a 9.8% WACC-based discount rate; and (2) a discounted comparable valuation analysis of similarly sized semiconductor companies based on EV-to- sales ratios. Details regarding assumptions we believe are still relevant given our $10 million sales estimate for 2021 presented in the prior note referenced above. Risks associated with an investment include: development, competitive, pricing, and potentially dilutive financing(s).

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