From page 14 of the report: "If we say the joint venture is able to reach $200 million in revenues by then and the rest of the business can ramp to $100 million that would be $200 million in revenues for POET in 2025. Using 7.8xs gives us a valuation of $1.56 billion or $4.70 per share by 2024 using today’s fully diluted share count."
The analyst is taking the approx. $200 million projected from the Sanan partnership and dividing it roughly in half for POET's share of the JV and then predicting $100 million in additional revenue from customers based outside of China. On share-price guidance the report is very conservative, which at times seems contradictory to its robust outlook of the technology within the report.
From page 7:
On Data Centers: "While users will pay up for 400G, it is believed prices still need to come down to 3X 100G before sales of 400G will take off, fitting in perfectly with the costs saving POET may be able to provide."
On Co-packaged Optics: "In this, POET has several advantages, including its ability to accurately place multiple lasers and modulators on a single substrate, to pull out the heat from those devices, and eventually to package the ASIC directly with photonics in a standard, wafer-level CMOS compatible process."
On "High Performance Computing for Artificial Intelligence Applications: One such example that POET is working with a customer on is a complete system-in-package for optical computing, all built on an optical interposer."
Overall, a clear-headed report with new information for investors and some hints of what is on the horizon, should the JV lead to a contract and positive progress continue on other fronts.
