Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Message: Meeting Monday, sept14..Can't wait for...Vivek..excited

And, Mr Dede published a note yesterday (same $1.50 target) highlighting the new agreement and the company's novel "news" policy - let's hope they feed the policy Monday AM:

 

 

Announcement yesterday confirms focus of late-August AGM

meeting: the evolution to product development. A string of recent

events not only calls attention to POET's developmental progress,

but also corroborates what we see as POET's most vital claim

laid out clearly at the August 26 annual general meeting (AGM):

POET has evolved from an R&D, technology development company,

to a product company. While vaguely alluded to late last month,

yesterday's customer announcement confirms a new agreement with

an as yet unidentified European optical device manufacturer for

400G capacity optical engines that comprise the key component in

transforming electrical signals to optical signals in communication

networks specifically within a data center environment where thousands

of high-capacity servers might be networked together. Most data

centers are still on the upgrade path to 100G ("G" as in gig, not

"generation"), where 400G marks a two-generational step forward

from current deployments. Recall, POET is working with China-based

Sanan to commercialize its version of both 100G and 200G data

center connectivity devices. The recent AGM discussed progress on

that front too, and we expect POET to have working product fielded

at Chinese end customers in the third quarter next year (where we

explicitly agree with POET's AGM outlined roadmap). Although specific

financial details remain scant, we see the new European customer

announcement simultaneously validating POET's technology and our

bullish perspective. We had less confidence POET would see the fruits

of its labor in collusion with its China-based partner as the company

owns less than 50% of that JV formed with Sanan. It appears that the

new deal is structured in a more familiar fashion, where limited nonrecurring

engineering (NRE) funds drive the minor alterations in POET's

Interposer platform to perfectly meet the European company's functional

specifications, and contracted pre-specified sales are collected later.

POET's European customer should have a 400G product complete with

POET components reach the market mid-year next year; meanwhile,

POET claims it could have two other related 400G products in the

market by the end of next year: (1) 400G light engine; and (2) 400G

FR4 receiver. A 400G FR4/DR optical engine showed on POET's AGM

roadmap as well late August, but it may not become commercially

available until 2022. Important in all of this discussion we think, is the

availability of multiple products next year, substantiating our $10M sales

estimate, and perhaps leading to a conservative view of it.

Novel heavy-handed news machine. In effort to solidify constituents'

understanding, we understand POET may become more prolific in

reporting its advancements through regular press releases. We suspect

the improved news flow to call attention to the completion of its full

commercial metamorphosis while we expect the dollar consequences to

arrive in due course. We make only minor adjustments on our estimates

near term, while holding our 2021 sales estimate static at $10M.

The European contract release, we suspect, is merely the beginning

of a continual broadcast of POET's improved commercial standing

to include, we imagine, progress reports on the many Interposerrelated

deals POET has worked on over the past 12-18 months—given

Interposer's disruptive capabilities—as well as updates on its Sanan JV.

 

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