Since no one else has taken a stab at revenue numbers I will go first.

Q: As you’re envisioning how things will unfold and thinking about where you're going to be over the course of this year, what does December 31 look like for Super Photonics? How much is it producing on a monthly basis?

VR: By the end of the year, we will be in mass production. At least with certain engines for 100G and 200G, and 400G probably will not be in production but getting to final samples that customers can design into their systems. In 2022, we will be going into mass production and revenue with 400G as well. And 2023 is when we expect triple-digit million-dollar revenues for Super Photonics.

Q: What is mass production defined as? If you’re doing 10,000 units a month would that be mass production?

VR: Yes, I would say 10,000 a month is mass production.

Edward Cornejo: Yes, for the kind of products we’re talking about, that’s a good number.

Q: You've been involved in developing ground-breaking technologies throughout your careers. Based on your experiences, how important is the optical engine to the industry?

VR: POET is really changing the way optoelectronics is being done. We are transforming the existing approach. So to see these optical engines being produced, 10,000 a month or 100,000, whatever it may be when we start, it’s not only a business success, I feel it is a success for the industry.

So what do these numbers look like? If we assume  that each optical engine is sold for an aver price $50 give or take for 100G and more for 400G then we begin to get a ballpark number and some timing.

So if we assume mass production begins at the end of this year at 10,000 units per month and using the above average price that would equate to $500k per month or $6 million per year.

If that rate of production reached 100,000 units per month when the 400G optical engines becomes  available by the summer of 2022 then again using the ballpark cost assumption of $50 that would  be $5,000,000 per month or $60 million per year and it will likely be a continuous ramp  leading to  triple digit million dollar revenue in 2023.

We wanted some idea of revenue stream ramp. There it is. But let’s look at how POET gets there and contemplate what maximum capacity out of the Super Photonics might look like.

With a form factor of 6mm by 9mm 467 die will fit on a 200mm (8in) wafer. So in order to reach 10,000 optical engines a month 21 eight inch wafers would need to be processed a month. To reach 100,000 optical engines per month 210 eight in wafers need to be processed per month. I would expect that capacity out of Super Photonics is likely being planned to reach more like 1,000,000 optical engines per month requiring the processing of 2,100 wafers per month.

The average wafer capacity for a 200mm fab is about 40,000 wafers per month.   

So my guestimate for 2022 is $60 million in revenue out of Super Photonics. What it will be for Europe and the USA as production ramps in all 4 pillars is anyone’s guess.

We have some rough numbers to work with as mass production begins to ramp. 

At $60 million in revenue beginning 2022 and ramping to $100+ million out of SuperP (alone) in 2023 I begin to think that POET could quickly begin to support a $10 share price target as $1 billion begins to be seen as doable for the 4 markets as described in the Needham Conference.