Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Jan 27, 2022 01:41AM

The market can stay insane longer than you can stay solvent.  If you wouldn't own a stock for 10 years, you shouldn't own it for ten minutes.  I think that last one was a Buffet saying.  

Honestly, I am a wee bit scared about the stock price, and certainly it is disheartening.  Management did more in the past year or so to communicate about their company's tech and it's future value than they've ever done.  I just personally think that drawing a straight line between fundamentals and a stock price usually doesn't hold true, and the when of a company being rewarded for what it owns and does has much more to do with market moods and time than with fundamentals.  

We are not in normal times, unfortunately, and that means our stock may well encounter geopolitical risk.  You think they should have told us all the little aggravating things that were delaying them due to the world's supply chain crisis?  Did you fully comprehend how bad that crisis was going to be?  Did they?  I doubt it.   If they had told us - then perhaps they would then be blamed for the stock price being down for that.  Eventually they did tell us, and we're now mad they didn't tell us sooner?  Like they could predict how long these sorts of things would continue?  

If the stock price was up, imo - you would be praising their recent efforts of communication, not criticising them, and you think you can draw those straight lines to the stock price, tell everyone WHY the price is up or down.  No you can't.  You may think you can, but you can't.   

The genuinely important thing is how is the business actually doing.  Are they growing?  Are they finding new customers?  Are they progressing?  Is their tech protected by patents?   This board was more optimistic years ago when all they had was some tech and patents.  Well, they now have more.  They have expanded their business.  They have so many opportunities and potential customers that they are actually having to prioritize which ones they work on first.  They have money coming in, and can now afford so many more engineers/employees than before, and they have attracted some of the best.  They also have many more patents to protect their tech, and it seems to me they are so ahead of other companies that they will surely get at least a nice chunk of the pie that is silicon photonics.

Suresh had the good sense to first go around to all those potential customers and ask them what they actually wanted.  He was giving them a heads up about the potential of Poet's tech to find out what they were really interested it. Now I call that good communication, and of a sort that truly matters to the company.  I also remember him expressing how pleased he was with their response.  He realized that if Poet could make its OI platform, then there was a ready customer base eager for it.  

He has grown this company from a few men and some potential into products, customers, partners and a growing employee base all working hard to seize the most important importunities.  We see this, and think its impossible for the stock price to not be higher, so we look around for someone to blame, but actually what we have to do is wait.  

We who have done so much DD over the years may realize the probable inevitability of contracts, but the rest of the market does not.  Period.  When actual contracts come in and Poet begins to make money, then more money, then even more money, that is when a rising stock price becomes more than likely, it becomes almost inevitable.  That is when eyes swivel our way, and more investors start looking into the why of evergrowing earnings and then see its future potential.  

Now if I was someone looking into Poet, and read a board where management is being painted in a certain light, how would that not effect me?  I would never want to invest in a company if I thought its management was lacking in ability or character.   So when people who say they are heavily invested are the very ones discouraging others from trusting managenment, and when it's as heavy handed and repetitive as I have seen here, how can I not conclude that either they are very incompetent investors or that they are actually trying to bring down the stock price like a trader or shorter would?

I cannot tell you how sick I am of the whinyness, childishness, repetitiveness and nastiness of it all, and I hope that it is soon swept off this board.  How about those who have to keep at it find another board to do that on?  You can say this board for the optimists, and that board for the pessimists?

Again, if you would not own a stock for 10 years, you should not own it for 10 minutes - Buffet.  And yeah, he would say 10 years from today. 

 

 

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Jan 27, 2022 07:41AM
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TKB
Jan 27, 2022 10:24AM
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