FJ:  there will be "blood in the water"

Will be?  Perhaps there already is and we don't know it.

Most who have seen my contributions to this forum over the years will agree I am a strong proponent of the technology, along with its vast potential and well as appreciation for the technical masterminds leading the way.  However, I do judge some of the push back against recent criticisms on how the "business" is being run as a diversion away from the actual root of these criticisms and complaints.

I think it goes without saying the vast majority here support the tremendous efforts and progress the company has made when it comes technology and product development.  Many also understand setbacks and roadmap revisions can and will occur from time to time, whether it be due to covid and supply chain constraints or simply technical setbacks in the lab.  Lumping these concerns into a catch all "you must hate so and so" or "you just don't understand what's actually going on” (paraphrasing of course), is somewhat shallow and conflates the issue.  This isn't about the technology and ongoing product development, or the technical gurus making it happen.  It’s about valuation and finances, which starts and ends with the CFO.

So, where are we from a valuation and financing perspective?  Well, according to the latest financial report, at this moment the company may have no more than 8 months operating capital remaining (my math, please refute if you feel otherwise).  Therefore, in my estimation the company will need funds soon, in fact, I would be very concerned if something isn't happening to secure operating capital (one way or another) as we speak.

Serious investors will be well aware of the company's financial position, so the question for them, do we invest now, wait to see if there's an opportunity to participate in the financing ourselves or just hang back to avoid dilution associated with a financing.  To date, the answer to the question seems pretty clear, they are not investing in any significant way as evidenced by lack of overt buying and stagnant share price.  Of course, if you're the banker, you'll want to keep the price as low as possible for as long as possible hoping to back the company into a corner.  Now the stand-off: If the company announces a blockbuster deal the company wins, if not, the financers win.  One way or another this will unfold by the end of this year, if not sooner. 

From our perspective, a lowered valuation mean financers get a bigger piece of the company for the same amount of money, and higher dilution for us.  And, let's not forget the elephant in the room: low-ball buyout.  Perhaps keeping as low a profile as possible and not attracting interest until its too late is good thing, or ongoing low investment interest and overall valuation simply provides an easy opportunity for one of the company's customers to buy the company on the cheap.  I haven't decided how to read this.  I would expect (hope) management is always aware of the buyout possibility and has a strategy in place to mitigate the risk.

I am reasonably confident of good or even great things to come, however, the “business” must be managed carefully at such a critical time, otherwise there’s risk of being taken advantage of, or simply gobbled up.  Who knows, perhaps we see an unexpected windfall of sales before year-end offsetting the immediate cash crunch, or perhaps a new JV partner brings in a pile of cash to supplement the bottom line, etc. negating the need for immediate financing.  That said, you can’t blame investors for being concerned about the financial well being of a company when the only publicly available information tells them money may soon become an issue, which is only exacerbated by what we all agree to be a ridiculously low valuation considering the company's technical achievements to date.