Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications

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Message: Should be enlightening

Design wins are only announced for custom-made solutions, aka only for EU T1 and Celestial AI. For generic solutions, POET is selling the engines according to industry specifications and the customers simply issue purchase orders, no design wins are needed.

I expect some POs after the current sampling period, at least some small initial amounts. I also expect NREs and development cost refunds as stated in previous MD&As. With production of the 400G FR4 Receive engine in ~2 months, we should have some customers ready to issue POs.

I'm pretty sure there are sales and marketing people on staff, they just don't sit on the BoD for you to see. If you really want to meet the sales and marketing people at POET, maybe apply for a job there?

Ms. Ende and Ms. Lipson aren't going to waste their time with nobody startups given their careers. Ms. Ende's stature is about the same as that of Suresh, while Ms. Lipson is a member of the National Academy of Sciences. POET has the goods, that's why they're here.

As for the sizes of the markets POET is trying to crack, here's some rough numbers: 

  • Datacom: servicable addressable market is a couple hundred million dollars. (Optical engines are 1/3 the cost of a transceiver. The full transceiver market is a couple billion dollars).
  • AI Accelerator: TAM is 70B according to CAI's PRs. POET is projecting total revenue of 100M from CAI in the next 3 years. (POET's current run-rate is only ~12M a year!)
  • Wearbles: 500M units shipped in 2021. If POET's engine makes it into just 1% of this number, that's 5M units x $75 an engine = $375M in revenue.
  • Lidar & defence: opportunity size unknown.

That's how vast POET's markets are. The market wants to see POs and partnerships before it's ready to give POET the valuation it deserves.

Personally, I don't think POET should be valued less than $1B once we enter production ramp, but we must get there.

 

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