Re: Shareprice
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 26, 2022 03:58AM
"POET’s business model would make it similar to fabless semiconductor companies. Third parties would provide the production of its devices and we expect it would have margins similar to those companies below. They now trade at lower valuation resulting at an average of 6.9xs enterprise value to estimated 2022 revenues. Currently POET trades at an enterprise value of $147 million using a fully diluted share count. We need to look further out to where we think revenues would be by 2025. If we say the joint venture is able to reach $200 million in revenues by then and the rest of the business can ramp to $100 million that would be $200 million in revenues for POET in 2025. Using 6.9xs gives us an enterprise valuation of $1.4 billion. Today’s fully diluted share count is 42.0 million shares. We know that the company will probably raise money next year so we are adding 3.75 million shares to the total ($30 million at $8 per share) $1.4 billion divided by 45.75 million shares is $30.15 per share by 2025. This would be a present value of US$13.75 or CN$17.70 per share discounted by 30% per year." (Zacks market report 2022)
I do think Liza made a good calculation here. Didn't spent much time on it but I believe the trend will be pretty much something like this. All in my opinion and of course this info is not intended and shall not be construed or interpreted as financial advice. As with every start-up and especially tech start-ups, capital is needed to develop and capital is needed to take-off. So let's say the capital raise would be 30 million USD at 3USD/share somewhere in 2023, we should add 10M shares, that gives us 52M shares fully diluted. Let's say total revenue is 200M in 2025, that would give us a shareprice of $27 per share (market cap 1.4B). Let's say total revenue is 400M in 2026, that would give us a shareprice of $53 per share (market cap 2.8B). Let's say total revenue is 600M in 2027, that would give us a shareprice of $80 per share (market cap 4.2B). Let's say total revenue is 1B in 2028, that would give us a shareprice of $133 per share (market cap 6.9B). I believe the market always anticipates on what's coming so I believe our shareprice might go much higher even before these big sales are on the books. Then we investorscould also have the luck that POET becomes really popular and the shareprice irrationally goes to moon. But bottomline when sales begin in 2023, our shareprice will take an other road, in my opinion. And POET has decades of growth so that's another +.