Over the past 3 years, Poet's share price has been greater that 4.25 about 89.6% of the time. Given it's share price volatility, the odds of dropping below 4.25 in the next 90 days is about 15%. 

Thoses are the risks to weight agianst the benefit of risking the profit of $1.35 on a $4.25  investment (31.8%).

I find it helps to consider all available information when making evaluations and forming opinions.