Love the chatter today on Agora. Thanks for linking this presentation - the Lightcounting chart on slide 7 has shown up on a few earlier presentations - but some of these other comments such as CAI revenue beginning H2-2024 are lovely to see. Same goes for the AI clusters comment and HOGAN's remark about only 2 of top 10 incumbents remaining.

Using the chart it is pretty easy to forecast the next 5 years of 800G and 1.6T gross sales. I ramp POET's share of sales slowly (0% in 2024), but by 2028 I have them at 40% share. I then cut that in half because they will not make all of the revenue...Foxconn and Luxshare will take home quite a bit. If anyone can provide more insight as to how much of $1 of transceiver revenue we will probably keep by selling our engines to FIT, that would be helpful. My CAI estimates are made up but attempt to be conservative (Mr. Lavosky has described them as a 100x unicorn and I believe him).

This is currently pie in the sky modelling, which is why institutions cannot currently invest, but the mural is starting to get filled in and my confidence/conviction has never been higher. Volume seems to be preceding price nicely here. Here is my homework shown below using a 8x forward P/S multiple. Hope it comes to fruition, in the meantime I'll keep dreaming and accumulating on days like this!