Let's play with these numbers.

Fibermall 800G Module Pricing

"10's of millions to be shipped in 2024" from the article.

This sounds too good to be true, but even if we discount heavily, it's great news.

If you look at the 800G prices in the link above, it's a reasonable estimate that these modules average about $3,500.00 each. If we discount 30% for retail markup, that is $2,450.00. I assume that POET sells the OI chips to the partnership on a most-favored pricing scheme. Then, POET gets about 50% of the profits after the partnership pays its expenses. These are all guesstimates. I don't think the formula for the nitty-gritty of this partnership has been published.

$2,450 minus 50% for expenses= $1,225.00 X 50% (I have left out the per chip price that POET may receive)= $612.50 per module unit left for POET

$612.50 X 20,000,000 (this is the lowest possible interpretation of "tens of millions")

$12,250,000,000=$12.25B revenue to POET plus the chip sale revenue to the partnership if that is in the formula. I don't know, so I left it out.

I think the article is puffery, particularly the 10's of millions in 2024 sales of modules. They could mean orders for future deliveries or something lost in the translation. I think those numbers are coming, given that China is the biggest maker and module market. 

The current stock price makes no sense; there is a dramatic disconnect. 

It's been said that investors don't care, don't like, don't count Chinese partnership revenues. OK, well that's a bit much to get my head around. Deduct a risk premium, but the risk does not zero it out. The Chinese have been cut out of the best chips supply chain. Can they afford also to get hammered on the optical side? I don't think so.