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Message: Re: Super Photonics

After reading the comment with the above heading by AdAstra I felt compelled to reply, but not on the Discussion Forum since the subject is intensely "political" and in respect of Agoracom's Rule #3.

From Agoracom's Rule #3: "the main forums are not the place to discuss TV shows, politics or sports.."

Well, it is a great rule in theory, but of course politics affects the economy and Chinese politics directly affects the Super Photonics JV, so when discussing POET there should be an allowance for bending Rule #3 a little bit, but my reply to AdAstra's post is being posted over on the Off Topic Forum just the same.  Why, because the subject is totally political and Agoracom Rule #3 is what it is.  

That being said, after reading the comment from AdAstra designed to point out how weak China is realtive to the long time established Super Power the U.S. my first thought had to be how absolutely sophomoric and naive Ad Astra is with his unenlightened pontification.  The assertion that the Chinese military are all only childs and that the Chinese Navy would, in a conflict with the U.S. be wiped from the face of the earth is a mixture of some truth, a false assertion and dangerous conjecture on the part of its author.  

The view from the summary portion of the Congressional Research Service document of 27 January 2021 seems to differ slightly from the opinon proffered by Mississippi Mud, to wit:

"China’s navy is viewed as posing a major challenge to the U.S. Navy’s ability to achieve and maintain wartime control of blue-water ocean areas in the Western Pacific—the first such challenge the U.S. Navy has faced since the end of the Cold War—and forms a key element of a Chinese challenge to the long-standing status of the United States as the leading military power in the Western Pacific. Some U.S. observers are expressing concern or alarm regarding the pace of China’s naval shipbuilding effort, particularly for building larger surface ships, and resulting trend lines regarding the relative sizes China’s navy and the U.S. Navy."

China Naval Modernization: Implications for U.S. Navy Capabilities—Background and Issues for Congress

Seapower, the Official Publication of the Navy League of the United States, had the quote below as part of their 1 September 2021 assessment of the PRC's Navy:

“The PRC has the largest navy in the world, with an overall battle force of approximately 350 ships and submarines including over 130 major surface combatants,” 

Pentagon Assessment: China Now Has World’s Largest Navy - Seapower (seapowermagazine.org)

In regard to the broader military capability of the U.S. vs China there are some interesting statistics that point out strengths and weaknesses of both parties, but just how much "left over ammo" the U.S. would have in the event of an actual shooting war confrontation with China is, hopefully, only a futile mental exercise and will never become an actuality.  It would be absolute folly to entertain the possibility of an undamaged "Win" of one party over the other and outrageous to utter such an absurdity.  But of course pontificating on a "Win" is something easy to do for those full of belicose bluster before the first shot is fired.

As for the 1 Child Policy of the PRC: It is true that the One Child Policy was terminated in China back as of 1 January 2016.

"China’s one-child policy will be remembered as one of the costliest lessons of misguided public policymaking."

The end of China’s one-child policy (brookings.edu)

"There were also a number of exceptions, including: families in which the first child had a disability or both parents worked in high-risk occupations (such as mining) or were themselves from one-child families (in some areas).  In rural areas (where around 70% of the population lived), a second child was normally allowed after five years, but this sometimes only applied if the first child were a girl — a clear acknowledgment of the traditional preference for boys. A third child could also be allowed among some ethnic minorities and in underpopulated areas."

The one-child policy in China | Centre For Public Impact (CPI

In summary:   In the countryside, a family could have two children if the first child was a girl. Ethnic minorities in the country could also have multiple children.

In terms of population control, China’s one-child policy was so effective it’s now being reversed, and Chinese officials are encouraging couples to have two children as of 2016, and three children as of 2021.

AdAstra counsels us all to "Look beyond the propaganda to understand that China will never go to war with Taiwan"

Well, opinions differ on that possibility and a BBC article points out that even in Taiwan the public view of that possibility ranges from both extremes to a middle position that doesn't believe it is likely to happen.

China and Taiwan: A really simple guide - BBC News

Business Insider had an interesting article about the possibility of China invading Taiwan:

China is building a military capable of taking over Taiwan by 2030, US intel chief says (msn.com)

Okiedo

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