Agoracom: Small Cap Investment - POET Technologies Inc. - Re: Trying to outrun the bear or drawing a cat trying to represent a tiger? Could it happen for Super Photonics?

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Re: Trying to outrun the bear or drawing a cat trying to represent a tiger? Could it happen for Super Photonics?

in response to

Trying to outrun the bear or drawing a cat trying to represent a tiger? Could it happen for Super Photonics?

okiedo

posted on Sep 09, 2023 06:52PM

Bear, Tiger, Cat or "none of the above"?

The economy in China and the environment for China-US, China-Canadian, China-Fill In The Blank Country has changed some since February. The economic picture for China itself has slipped some since February when I posted my original Off Topic post referencing how the environment in China might affect Super Photonics in the future. I don't know that the picture is completely clear and a lot probably depends on which JV you are looking at and what are the goals of the "foreign" partner in a particular Chines-Foreign JV.

My belief is unchanged in regard to how important I believe that it is for POET to establish a genuine North American manufacturing center to offset any possible untoward effects that might be associated with their arrangement with Sanan for the Super Photonics JV. I certainly don't think or advocate that the Super Photonics JV should be abandoned, only that developing a manufacturing center here in North America might be somewhat of an insurance policy in case the North American-Chinese geopolitical scene deteriorates significantly further and/or the economic climate for Chinese-Foreign JVs deteriorates for any reason, political or just plain due to bad economics in China.

OK, some updated info in the following links:

China is Full of Risk, so Why Can't Corporate America Leave? NYT

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/08/business/china-us-business.html

Biden issues an executive order restricting US investments in Chinese technology ABC News

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/biden-issues-executive-order-restricting-us-investments-chinese-102146303

August 30, 2023: "China's embassy in Washington on Tuesday defended its business practices after U.S. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo said U.S. firms had told her that China had become "uninvestible."

https://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/international/world-news/china-says-easing-market-access-in-response-to-uninvestible-comment-from-us/articleshow/103189622.cms

"Certain sectors are being impacted more than others.

Even before President Biden signed that executive order, U.S. investors steered away from certain parts of China's economy, especially in technology and sectors such as AI and chips that have potential national security implications."

NPR: https://www.npr.org/2023/08/26/1195711197/china-us-trade-tensions-commerce-secretary-gina-raimondo

The Yuan has slid to a 16 year Low against the U.S. Dollar:

https://www.scmp.com/economy/economic-indicators/article/3233871/chinas-yuan-how-far-will-beijing-go-support-its-currency-after-slide-16-year-low-against-us-dollar

These few articles, linked above, provide only a small window into some of the changes in China since earlier this year. As for our JV with Sanan, it may indeed be totally unaffected by all of the twists and turns occuring for other foreign business in China and the reasons for staying in China with the JV may continue to far outway the alternative.

Predicting the future is a risky game itself, but having more options to guard against adverse possible consequences by having a significant manufacturing location here in Canada or the U.S. would only provide some semblance of security that we might otherwise not have considering the rapid changes in the geopolitical situation in the Pacific.

Who knows, perhaps even an announcement of intent to build a North American POET factory might just move the Share Price off of the sandbar where it is now varying from stuck to sinking further? Yes, I know we are on the cusp of greatness, but we have been on that same cusp for over a decade and "greatness" is still just around the corner, tomorrow maybe? Maybe. I have no evidence to submit that an announcement of a North American POET plant being built would move the needle one iota, on the other hand what proof is there that it wouldn't when you take into consideration all of the goepolitical drama playing out between the West and The Middle Kingdom?