Aiming to become the global leader in chip-scale photonic solutions by deploying Optical Interposer technology to enable the seamless integration of electronics and photonics for a broad range of vertical market applications
Message: Glad we are not Lightweight Logic
From ihub
Time to sell LWLG (" their stock price will likely fall further ")
Mar. 25, 2023
Issues around capital availability could become a problem for the company.
We are very worried about reflexivity risks. The happenings with SVB Financial is going to be a problem for all businesses like LWLG.
The issue, for the longest time, has been the lack of commercial results. Investors need to be unforgiving in scrutinizing the execution over 2023 and 2024 on the commercialization timelines, but also need to consider how the capital environment has changed. 2023 will be the decisive year for both capital market conditions for early-stage businesses as well as for LWLG specifically.
The issue is nothing commercial has happened. The company burns about $10 million in cash per year on a $25 million cash balance.
More dilution is coming.
Overhead could start rising in 2024. Currently the company is demonstrating its products for manufacturability at foundries, and results for that are expected at the end of 2023, but 2024 is when they really have to start trying to license out their products and start creating a commercial offering.
LWLG will have to spend more on marketing and trying to pitch their technology to manufacturers. This will take time and effort. 2024 is when these efforts begin but not necessarily when they start bearing fruit. Many OEMs are going to be in Japan, where corporate culture moves slowly. Even in more dynamic countries the sorts of stakeholders that LWLG will deal with are going to take their time. Meanwhile LWLG will have to dilute, trying to raise capital in a market that suddenly became a lot more hostile to early stage businesses in the wake of SVB Financial's (SIVB) blowup.
The SVB blowup was no small thing. If credit standards are tightening and its sprouting from venture-facing banks, then the retreat of venture debt is going to cause a retreat in venture equity, because both of those depend on each other to increase the likelihood of a successful investment.
Publicly-listed pre-revenue and early-stage companies just like Lightwave Logic have demonstrated that public markets are absolutely not a friendly place for investments like these anymore.
The dispute is not around their technology, nor is it around their commercial model. Licensing out is a good idea, and it will save them cash which is paramount. But they will have to spend more cash regardless, and their stock price will likely fall further as capital markets start to really feel the intended credit crunch that monetary authorities have been aiming for. Dilution rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future, and shareholders have to hope that commercialization happens as management plans. While the TAM is very large, LWLG stock needs to deliver for current shareholders to see enough of that upside to take the risk today.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4590050-lightwave-logic-2023-will-be-decisive?mailingid=30957007&messageid=tech_daily&serial=30957007.52573&utm_campaign=Tech%2BDaily%2BV1%2B2023-03-25&utm_content=tech_daily_control&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=Tech%2BDaily
Mar. 25, 2023
Issues around capital availability could become a problem for the company.
We are very worried about reflexivity risks. The happenings with SVB Financial is going to be a problem for all businesses like LWLG.
The issue, for the longest time, has been the lack of commercial results. Investors need to be unforgiving in scrutinizing the execution over 2023 and 2024 on the commercialization timelines, but also need to consider how the capital environment has changed. 2023 will be the decisive year for both capital market conditions for early-stage businesses as well as for LWLG specifically.
The issue is nothing commercial has happened. The company burns about $10 million in cash per year on a $25 million cash balance.
More dilution is coming.
Overhead could start rising in 2024. Currently the company is demonstrating its products for manufacturability at foundries, and results for that are expected at the end of 2023, but 2024 is when they really have to start trying to license out their products and start creating a commercial offering.
LWLG will have to spend more on marketing and trying to pitch their technology to manufacturers. This will take time and effort. 2024 is when these efforts begin but not necessarily when they start bearing fruit. Many OEMs are going to be in Japan, where corporate culture moves slowly. Even in more dynamic countries the sorts of stakeholders that LWLG will deal with are going to take their time. Meanwhile LWLG will have to dilute, trying to raise capital in a market that suddenly became a lot more hostile to early stage businesses in the wake of SVB Financial's (SIVB) blowup.
The SVB blowup was no small thing. If credit standards are tightening and its sprouting from venture-facing banks, then the retreat of venture debt is going to cause a retreat in venture equity, because both of those depend on each other to increase the likelihood of a successful investment.
Publicly-listed pre-revenue and early-stage companies just like Lightwave Logic have demonstrated that public markets are absolutely not a friendly place for investments like these anymore.
The dispute is not around their technology, nor is it around their commercial model. Licensing out is a good idea, and it will save them cash which is paramount. But they will have to spend more cash regardless, and their stock price will likely fall further as capital markets start to really feel the intended credit crunch that monetary authorities have been aiming for. Dilution rates will continue to rise for the foreseeable future, and shareholders have to hope that commercialization happens as management plans. While the TAM is very large, LWLG stock needs to deliver for current shareholders to see enough of that upside to take the risk today.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/4590050-lightwave-logic-2023-will-be-decisive?mailingid=30957007&messageid=tech_daily&serial=30957007.52573&utm_campaign=Tech%2BDaily%2BV1%2B2023-03-25&utm_content=tech_daily_control&utm_medium=email&utm_source=seeking_alpha&utm_term=Tech%2BDaily
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