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Message: Technicals and KXL

Technicals and KXL

posted on Mar 21, 2008 07:39AM

I agree that technicals may not necessarily be representative of KXL's potential, but I must contend that they do in fact have a much greater sway than you would like to think in determining the direction of KXL and many other equities trading on the TSX.V.

The simplest rationale I can provide for this is derived from the following: Much of the liquidity and volume on the TSX.V comes from theinstitutional players and daytrading. Consider that through a variety of techniques the hedge funds, mutual funds, and the houses 'make' their entry point through brute force when accumulating, and 'make' their exit points, if need be, when dissolving a position - that a cyclical stock is really a series of entry and exit points for one or more of these parties, which may be buying and or selling at any or all of these points along the way... technical analysis exploits the cycles and patterns created by these parties, and as more and more individuals/groups come to rely on technical analysis it actually becomes more accurate - it becomes it's own self-fulfilling prophesy. Blackbox trading software, and or education/experience, will suggest an entry or exit point(s) to the trader/investor, volume is the product of the decisions of all parties involved with buying or selling at an entry or exit point, and the greater the volume at any point, the stronger the effect. In essence, as more and more parties come to rely on technicals, the effects become more pronounced.

Where does KXL fit in? Jr. explorer valuation stems from current value + a speculative premium for forward potential. These valuations change with events, such as News, Rumors, etc.. After an event, such as a news release, the valuation is contrasted with current and perceived forward market value (market cap) and the share price will change as investors seek to optimize entry and exit points through exchanges. These events, are for the most part, unpredictable and somewhat spontaneous (as allegedly enforced by the SEC, hem). Technical analysis cannot be used to optimize trading for a 100% unpredictable spontaneous event. However, if there is even a portion of trading that occurs from those in the know, technical indicators may reveal this...

Between events, on the TSX.V, I truly believe that equities such as KXL fall into patterns as large players, retailors seek to optimize their positions through recognisable patterns and as daytrading provides further liquidity which exaggerates the cycle - now more than ever, as do it yourself investors (such as myself) further promote these cycles by attempting to optimise personal gains through pattern exploitation.

Fortunately for those who do not daytrade (including myself), relying on technical analysis alone is probably not adequate to ensure that when multiple gold-bearing quartz structures are exposed at depth in the GB mine camp, that you've optimized your basket to contain all the eggs at just the right time. Only DD and faith will take you to this place friends... I say 'fortunately', because if all events were foreseeable by only a select few, we would be trading at 40 cents again in a massive accumulation phase until the actual event. It is the speculative premium that holds the SP from falling apart between events.

Personally, I use technical analysis to trade mining equities I think have potential, but am still somewhat apprehensive of. On the other hand, for companies like Kodiak, technical analysis is moreso a fear-beating machinebeat that staves off emotional decisionmaking during fluctuations so that when an unpredictable, spontaneous NR comes along I am already in.

Good luck to you all, whether you use technical analysis or not, the end outcome will be the same for all of us who are long.

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