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Message: Re: American Bulls - just in case I didn't make that crystal clear

Sep 03, 2008 05:37PM
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Sep 03, 2008 05:53PM

Sep 04, 2008 07:40AM
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Sep 04, 2008 08:31AM

Sep 04, 2008 09:01AM
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Sep 04, 2008 09:10AM

No problem with what you wrote Zooloo. Hey, this isn't SH, there should be no worries about abuse.

American Bulls is indeed based on a very, very simple trend-following algorithm, and indeed "the trend is your friend", as Marty Zweig used to say. Trends can be useful.

The scam part of it is, as you pointed out, "since they take the beginning of the price trend as their "purchase" price and in the real world that generally doesn't happen" - they base their trend on a start-date in the past, a date you can't base your own trades on because you can't go out now and buy stock yesterday.

The business of back-dating their trend-starting and trend-ending points is what allows them to claim an impressive but not real track record. It's lovely to look at but not one that anyone can actually trade on.

Sigh, the number of times I wish I'd bought or sold KXL or what have you yesterday, knowing what I do know today, are as many as palm trees in the Carribean. Many. Times.

As you can see, what makes me either laugh or cry is witnessing an observation based on today's AB prediction when we're being lulled into believing it's a "prediction" for tomorrow, rather than an after-the-fact "prediction" for today. As Proto put it, they're 3 letters short of a name.

By the way, I "predict" that I had another cheese sandwich earlier today for lunch. So far I'm 2 for 2.

So don't worry, no attacks from me, we're on the same page about AB. They do trend follow, and they do grant themselves a retroactive starting point.

all best

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